Ah, the crypto markets-those capricious sirens of the digital age-have once again decided to perform their favorite pas de deux: a 7.3% pirouette, shedding $340 billion like so much confetti since their August 14 apotheosis. Bitcoin, that prima donna of the ledger, has retreated 7.5% from its zenith, while Ethereum, ever the understudy, has stumbled 10% from its 2025 crescendo, failing to seize the spotlight anew.
“How quaint,” mused the indefatigable analyst and economist Alex Krüger on Tuesday, “that every time the markets execute a modest plié from their peaks, the masses commence their ritualistic hand-wringing over the cycle’s demise.”
Krüger, that modern-day Cassandra, joins a chorus of soothsayers declaring the four-year crypto cycle as passé as a rotary phone. “The notion of a 4-year cycle in 2025 is as misplaced as a monocle at a rave,” he proclaimed, arguing that this cyclical beast “expired two cycles ago, with 2021 a mere coincidence, a macro-driven fluke.”
The 2021 denouement, he insists, was not a Bitcoin soliloquy but a Federal Reserve-driven tragedy. The cycle’s curtain fell not due to Bitcoin’s inherent drama but because the Fed turned “ultra-hawkish” in January 2022, a plot twist no one saw coming-or perhaps everyone did, but ignored, as is the way of things.
Bitcoin, once the enfant terrible of volatility, now trades with the sedate predictability of a blue-chip stock-a transformation Krüger attributes to the spot ETF approvals, which have tamed its once-wild spirit. “This cycle is far from its finale,” he added with a wink, “for I foresee the Fed’s metamorphosis into a dovish dove, a shift yet to be priced into the market’s collective consciousness.”
“Bull markets, those fickle creatures, do not perish from overvaluation or overextension; they require a grand catalyst, a dramatic denouement.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, that maestro of monetary policy, is set to speak at Jackson Hole on Friday, a performance that may offer clues to September’s rate decision. A hawkish aria, Krüger warns, would cast a bearish shadow, while a dovish serenade could reignite the flames of optimism.
“A bear trap, you say? How delightfully medieval.”
If the four-year cycle persists-a relic from a bygone era-the current correction is but a dramatic interlude, a bear trap designed to ensnare the unwary. In 2017, crypto markets plunged 40% in September, only to soar to new heights three months later. The same script played out in 2021, with a 25% September slump preceding fresh peaks. A chart, as ubiquitous as a meme, illustrates this pattern: bull markets lasting nine months, with the bear trap always lurking in the sixth month-precisely where we find ourselves now.
Bitcoin Macro Bull-Cycles
2011:
– Duration: 9 Months (post-ATH)
– Bear trap in Month 62013:
– Duration: 9 Months
– Bear trap in Month 62017:
– Duration: 9 Months
– Bear trap in Month 62021:
– Duration: 9 Months
– Bear trap in Month 62025:
– We just entered Month 6… 🍿– ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ (@DeFiTracer) August 18, 2025
The “Halving Cycles Theory,” that esoteric tome of crypto lore, predicts the cycle’s climax within three weeks of November 28-a mere three months hence, as noted by the enigmatic analyst CryptoCon. Will the markets oblige, or will they, as is their wont, defy all predictions with a flourish of unpredictability? Only time, that implacable arbiter, will tell. 🕰️
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2025-08-19 11:27