🚨 DOGE’s Icy Plunge: Will the Floor Crumble? 🚨

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Ah, Dogecoin, that whimsical beast of the crypto forest, prances once more on the precipice of financial absurdity! Its November bounce, as feeble as a sickly goose, manages a paltry 1.2% gain. Yet, lo! The poor creature is down 5.9% in a week and nearly 27% this month. And now, the shadows of on-chain data whisper of a deepening sell trend, as if the very earth beneath its paws trembles. 😱

The question, dear reader, hangs in the air like a malodorous cloud: can Dogecoin’s $0.17 floor-a bastion of resilience since October 11, even during the last bearish waltz-withstand the exodus of its long-term holders? Or will it crumble like a stale biscuit in a cup of lukewarm tea? 🍵

Cost Basis Heatmap: The Last Stand of the Faithful

Behold, the on-chain cost basis data, a map of financial folly, reveals Dogecoin’s strongest short-term support cluster between $0.177 and $0.179. Here, nearly 3.78 billion DOGE were last hoarded, a fortress of hope against the encroaching bears. 🏰

This range, a bulwark of long-term holder supply, has stood firm during past sell-offs, like a loyal dog guarding its master’s slipper. But alas, even the most steadfast guardians tire. 😔

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The cost basis heatmap, a kaleidoscope of investor folly, reveals where most have staked their fortunes. It highlights the price zones where long-term holders congregate, acting as either support or resistance, depending on their whims. 🌈

But woe! This fortress is weakening faster than a Gogol protagonist’s resolve. According to Glassnode, the Hodler Net Position Change-a barometer of long-term wallet behavior-flipped sharply negative on October 31. From an inflow of +8.2 million DOGE, it plummeted to an outflow of -22 million DOGE in a mere 24 hours. A 367% reversal! Is this the sound of wallets fleeing like peasants from a plague? 🏃💨

This swing confirms that even the oldest of wallets are offloading their holdings, like a family auctioning off heirlooms to pay the rent. If this continues, the $0.177-$0.179 cluster will thin out, leaving Dogecoin’s strongest base since early October exposed to further peril. Below $0.17, the next significant cost-basis cluster lurks at $0.14, a chasm of potential losses wide enough to swallow a caravan of camels. 🐪

The Looming Death Cross: A Specter of Doom

The DOGE price structure now mirrors the on-chain gloom. After the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossed below the 200-day EMA in late October, Dogecoin’s decline accelerated-the first act in its tragic downtrend. The EMA, a trend indicator as reliable as a Gogol narrator’s sanity, smooths out price data to reveal the market’s direction. 📉

Now, a second, more ominous death cross looms as the 100-day EMA approaches a drop below the 200-day EMA. Unlike its predecessor, this crossover carries the weight of longer timeframes, signaling sustained weakness rather than fleeting volatility. If confirmed, it will herald deepening downside momentum, fortifying the bearish structure already in place. In such a scenario, Dogecoin’s $0.17 support zone, highlighted by its cost basis heatmap, may finally yield-opening the gates to a fall toward $0.14. A near 6% dip! 😵

Currently, DOGE trades near $0.18, hemmed in by immediate resistances at $0.20 and $0.21. A daily close above $0.21, a level untested since October 13, would be required to dispel this bearish specter. But will it? Or is Dogecoin destined to wander the crypto wilderness, a cautionary tale of greed and folly? Only time-and the whims of the market-will tell. ⏳

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2025-11-02 03:07