In the grand theater of finance, where fortunes rise and fall with the whims of the market, Strategy stock (Nasdaq:MSTR) presented a spectacle most peculiar on the 2nd of December. 🌪️ The firm, bound by the chains of its own making, declared it would part ways with its Bitcoin holdings should the mNAV (market-to-net-asset-value) dip below the sacred 1x. A decision, one might say, as fickle as the winds that sweep the steppes of Russia.
The stock, like a wounded bear, stumbled, plunging over 8% to a lowly $149, only to roar back and close the day at $171.5. 🐻↗️ A rebound, perhaps, but one that leaves the soul questioning the stability of such a creature.
Yet, in the midst of this chaos, the analysts at Benchmark, with a confidence bordering on the absurd, raised MSTR’s price target to $705, implying a 183% upside potential. 🤑 A bold claim, indeed, in a world where Bitcoin’s shadow looms large and debt obligations whisper of doom.
Mark Palmer, the sage of Benchmark, in a note to his disciples, dismissed the fears surrounding MSTR with a wave of his hand. 📉 “Fear not,” he proclaimed, “for even if Bitcoin’s price were to plummet below $12,700 and remain there, the company’s ~$8.2bn of convertible debt would not be its undoing.” A scenario, he assured, as unlikely as a snowstorm in July.
“While drawdowns of 80%+ have occurred multiple times in Bitcoin’s brief history, it would take a confluence of macro shocks to bring such a calamity upon us now.” 🌪️💸
In December, Benchmark stood alone, a beacon of optimism, issuing a strong buy for MSTR, undeterred by the MSCI exclusion threat or the BTC correction. Thirteen other analysts, though less fervent, joined the chorus with a ‘moderate buy’ rating. 🎻
Palmer, ever the poet, declared that MSTR’s “Bitcoin-linked reflexivity gives it an upside torque unmatched by any other equity.” 🌟 A claim as grand as it is uncertain.
The $1.44B Reserve: A Cushion or a Noose?
Strategy, in a move both bold and questionable, announced a $1.44 billion reserve to cover obligations tied to dividends from preferred stocks used to fund BTC purchases. 🛡️ Some hailed this as a wise precaution, a cushion to avoid selling BTC. Others, however, saw it as merely another loan, a noose tightening around the neck of the MSTR ecosystem.
Critics, ever the harbingers of doom, warned that such a scenario could drag BTC and the entire crypto market into the abyss. Peter Schiff, with his usual flair for drama, declared it the “end of MSTR.” 🌋
Will Strategy Part Ways with Its BTC?
Carmelo Aleman of CryptoQuant, however, offered a different perspective, dismissing Schiff’s apocalyptic vision. 🌅 He noted that MSTR’s current level was undervalued relative to its BTC reserves, a signal that had triggered a rebound in 2022.
The market’s gaze now turns to MSTR’s mNAV (currently at 1.15x) and the looming question: will the firm sell its 650K BTC? 🧐 On Polymarket, the odds of a BTC sell-off by mid-2026 fluctuated wildly, settling below 30% at press time. A low probability, but not zero.
Final Musings
- Despite the market’s tremors, Benchmark sees a 180% upside for MSTR, and 13 analysts remain bullish. 🌈
- The market, ever speculative, begins to price in the possibility of Strategy selling BTC in 2026. 🕰️
And so, the saga of MSTR continues, a tale of debt, Bitcoin, and absurd optimism. What will the future hold? Only time, that relentless march forward, will tell. ⏳
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2025-12-03 01:16