Bitcoin Metric Shows ‘Euphoria’ as $112.5K BTC Price Squeezes New Buyers

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Key Points:

  • Bitcoin’s NUPL metric mimics past bull-market peaks with a delightful jump from “optimism” to “euphoria.”

  • Short-term holders are now living the dream, controlling a bigger chunk of Bitcoin’s realized cap.

  • New investors are being gently squeezed by Bitcoin’s price range, like a new kid in the schoolyard.

Ah, Bitcoin! The king of the digital coin world, ever so enigmatic, is supposedly in its “final expansion” toward a blow-off top-despite a few gloomy dips. New research hints that history is, yet again, repeating itself (but who’s surprised?).

In a blog post published on Wednesday, the ever-watchful onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant noted how Bitcoin’s price behavior resembles past patterns. Nothing says “history is repeating” like an overzealous bull market, right?

Bitcoin NUPL Implies “Shift from Optimism to Euphoria”

So, what’s this new cycle we’re hearing about? Bitcoin appears to be on its way to a new high, as control of the coin shifts between the old and the new hodlers. It’s a classic case of “who’s in charge today?”

According to CryptoQuant’s latest figures, Bitcoin’s unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) ratio has risen to +0.52. Historically, that’s the magic number signaling a thrilling shift from “optimism” to “euphoria.” Hold onto your hats, folks! 🎩

“In past cycles, like those in 2017 and 2021, NUPL readings above 0.5 meant most investors were dancing in profits. This, of course, fueled a delightful frenzy of speculative activity. Today, around 97% of circulating supply is in profit, reflecting overwhelming market confidence but also suggesting that the upside might be running out of steam without a little consolidation.”

Short-term holders (STHs), who have been holding for less than 155 days, are now sitting pretty with a record 44% of Bitcoin’s realized cap. How delightful for them! 🍾

CryptoQuant explains that a high STH ratio means newer investors are slowly taking the torch from the old-timers cashing out. Yep, the whales are part of this too. Big surprise.

“In past cycles, when the power shifted from long-term holders (LTHs) to short-term holders (STHs), it was typically the beginning of the end. The final phase of a bull market-cue dramatic music.”

XWIN Research, however, points out that this bull market is slightly… well, “different.” Thanks to institutional money pouring in, the effects of these shifts might be dampened, leaving us with a more stable-and dare we say, slightly boring-type of euphoria.

“This time, the structure appears less volatile, with ETF inflows, expanding stablecoin liquidity, and institutional participation absorbing the sell pressure. Call it ‘euphoria lite.’”

“On-chain data points to Bitcoin being in a mature speculative phase, supported by liquidity and continuous capital inflows. The real signal to watch for next will be a drop in STH share. That’ll be the moment when long-term investors take over again. How exciting!”

BTC Price Toys with STH Profit Margin

Now, here’s the fun part. Bitcoin’s STH gang is at a crossroads, facing a bit of a profitability challenge. Oops! Looks like the price is playing peekaboo with the STH cost basis-$112,500, according to CryptoQuant. Don’t you love it when things are so… dramatic? 🤡

The cost basis, or realized price, acts as support when the market dips. However, if it’s breached, it could flip and become a form of resistance. Sounds like an intense game of “will they, won’t they?”-but with more money involved.

CryptoQuant’s data shows the price is bouncing above and below this cost basis line, creating some delicious volatility for us to enjoy.

As the market continues to shift, expect more flips and flops than an Olympic gymnast. Hang on tight! 🙃

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2025-10-15 14:11