BTC’s Bull Market: A Cautious Dance of Hope and Despair 🐍💸

by

A study penned by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode on Oct. 20, 2025, reveals that most investors believe the Bitcoin bull market will persist for the next 3-6 months, like a stubborn fly buzzing around a decaying carcass of hope. Researchers, armed with clipboards and existential dread, surveyed institutional investors and crafted a crypto market outlook that reads like a love letter written in hieroglyphs. The report’s subtitle, “Navigating Uncertainty,” is a masterstroke of understatement, much like calling a hurricane a “gentle breeze.”

Summary

  • Researchers from Coinbase Institutional and financial consulting company Glassnode surveyed 124 investors between Sept. 17 and Oct. 3, 2025. A sprightly 67% of institutional and 62% of independent inventors (likely misspelled, but who am I to judge?) are bullish on Bitcoin for the next 3-6 months. A delusional optimism, if you ask me.
  • Almost half of the surveyed institutions (45%) believe the bull market is in its final stage, like a dying star refusing to admit it’s dying. Only 27% of independent respondents share this stance, perhaps because they’ve never owned a house. Both categories named the macro environment as the biggest risk for the following 3-6 months-because nothing says “risk” like central banks playing with matches.
  • 39% and 40% of surveyed institutional and independent investors believe that Bitcoin dominance will stay at the 55-60% level in the next 3-6 months. A stalemate, really. Like two cats staring at each other across a room, neither daring to pounce.

The report begins with a foreword by David Duong, Coinbase Institutional’s head of research, who expects favorable macroeconomic, regulatory, and policy conditions. He believes digital asset treasury companies will continue to amplify crypto demand; new rate cuts by year-end could help mobilize $7 trillion in idle funds. A poetic vision, akin to a child’s drawing of a castle made of clouds.

Duong also outlines several challenges, including the government shutdown, which limits access to key economic data, and the uncertain long-term viability of the DAT business model. The survey data are complemented by the authors’ market insights-because what the world truly needs is more insight.

According to the report, researchers have a stance of “cautiously optimistic” on Q4 2025. They name the current market conditions especially good for Bitcoin. A sentiment as thrilling as watching a snail race a tortoise.

Discrepancies between institutional and independent investors

As researchers surveyed 61 institutions and 63 independent investors, the results outline differences between their views of the market trends. A delightful schism, like two halves of a coin that can’t agree on which side is up.

First off, while both categories are optimistic about Bitcoin, most institutional respondents believe that the current bull market stage is final. Independent investors rather think we are at the accumulation or the markup stage. A classic case of “I’m fine, you’re drunk.”

Another slight discrepancy is the view on large-cap altcoins. Where 38% of surveyed institutions believe altcoins will be the best performers in the next 3-6 months, only 29% of independent investors share this view. A debate as heated as a discussion about pineapple on pizza.

Tom Lee (@fundstrat) says the DAT bubble might have already burst.

Over 200 DATs exist, but only Strategy and Bitmine account for 86% of trading volume. Most are trading below net asset value.

But he made a point that everyone’s missing.

When the dollar decoupled from gold in…

– Luca (@lucainweb3) October 17, 2025

Independents are more bullish on DATs with 14% vs. 8% of institutions. Notably, the share of institutional respondents who believe Bitcoin will be the worst-performing asset matches the share that believes DATs will be the best-performing (8% each), though the report does not indicate whether these were the same respondents. A statistical tango, perhaps.

15% of independent investors see Bitcoin as the potentially worst-performing crypto asset for the remainder of 2025. 60% of institutions see small-cap altcoins as the worst asset, while only 42% of independent investors share the same stance. A consensus as clear as mud.

Both categories cite a worsening macro environment as the biggest risk (institutions 38%, independents 29%). Geopolitical risks, hacks, and regulatory failures alarm both groups equally. Institutions appear less concerned than independents about liquidity drops and potential DAT failures. A sobering reminder that in crypto, even the sober are tipsy.

Shared beliefs

Both groups generally believe that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval for single-name spot crypto ETFs will serve as a market driver. Independents are somewhat more optimistic about the positive impact of ETF approvals. Only 13-14% of respondents in both groups expect no impact from SEC approvals. A fateful nod from the regulators’ Olympian court.

The survey indicates that both groups see reserve token burning and development spending as the two main priorities for crypto companies with sizable token treasuries. A fiscal philosophy as thrilling as watching paint dry.

Both independents and institutions called DATs “the most traded trade in crypto” right now (though technically, DAT stocks are not crypto). Independents see Bitcoin as equally “crowded,” while institutions view Solana as second to DATs. A hierarchy as fluid as a puddle in a hurricane.

An Emerging Trends section

The second half of the report is the review of new market trends and the Bitcoin and Ethereum trends study. This former section clearly shows that the summer of 2025 saw a drastic increase in DATs holding ETH and SOL. Before, Bitcoin-holding companies were sole rulers. A coup d’état in the making, perhaps.

As for the market dominance, researchers outlined a 7% Bitcoin dominance decrease in Q3 (before hiking in September), while ETH dominance grew by 4%. The data on Bitcoin and ETH spot ETFs growth reflects the ETH ETFs’ horizontal growth from July to September 2025. Lately, its growth has been more shaky. Bitcoin ETF growth has been more gradual and steady. A waltz of volatility and stoicism.

What a difference a quarter makes.

In Q3, $ETH ETF inflows surpassed $BTC for the first time.

– Coinbase Institutional 🛡️ (@CoinbaseInsto) October 20, 2025

In August, ETH ETF inflows outperformed Bitcoin ETF inflows by 10x, triggering debate about whether ETH has the potential to flip Bitcoin. A question as old as time, yet as new as a freshly mined block.

The 4-year cycle graphs for Bitcoin and Ether show that the current cycle (it started in 2022) is different. It lacks immense rallies and rather presents gradual buildups and declines. This cycle, Ether notably lacked the rallies it had in previous cycles. Instead, it had a long-term decline. A narrative as dull as a spreadsheet filled with zeros.

Bitcoin and Ethereum trends

As for Bitcoin trends, the latest months showed that even when Bitcoin price was reaching new highs, long-term investors preferred not to cash out. It marked a new trend. The sentiment gradually moved from belief to anxiety in the first half of 2025 and then flipped back in Q3. A rollercoaster ride with no seatbelts.

The Ethereum trends section emphasizes that for the first time, Ether ETF inflows ($9.4 billion) exceeded BTC ETF inflows ($8 billion). According to the report, the liquid and illiquid ETH holdings correlation in Q3 indicates that many long-term ETH investors preferred to cash out as soon as ETH saw a rally. ETH and other L2 blockchains saw a record-breaking volume of transactions while the fees were the lowest in 2 years. A paradox wrapped in an enigma, sold at a discount.

Read More

2025-10-21 00:35