Will Crypto Crash or Continue to CHUMP-erate? 🐧💸

by

On this gloriously mundane Friday, October 24, the crypto market shall partake in the delightful ritual of Bitcoin options expiring, with a notional value of approximately $5.1 billion attached to 47,000 contracts. A modest increase from last week’s proceedings, but one that remains unlikely to stir the spot market from its drowsy, sideways somnambulance.

Meanwhile, the US government continues its bipartisan masterpiece of incompetence, presumably trading congressional overcoats for a national séance. The delayed September CPI report, expected to materialize today, may yet stir the pot-if only for the sake of drama. At 3.1%, it’s a mere whisper in the wind, or as a cynic might say, a ‘directional indication’ of where inflation refuses to go.

The Bitcoin Options Pageant of Pain

This week’s batch of options is a symphony of balance: a put/call ratio of 1.03 suggests gamblers on both sides are squaring their bets with all the enthusiasm of a man choosing socks (i.e., no discernible urgency). The ‘max pain’ figure-$114,000 according to Coinglass-is a cruel joke, akin to a dinner party conversation that ends in tears and a bill for damages.

Open interest (OI), or the thrilling spectacle of contracts yet to expire, peaks at $120k, $130k, and $140k on Deribit. To clarify: at these strike prices, over $2 billion in OI squanders itself on hopes and dreams. And for those with less Apollo 11 optimism, a further $2 billion is anchored at $100k, as short sellers play chess with a guaranteed checkmate.

Total BTC options OI across exchanges now exceeds $63 billion-a figure so staggeringly absurd it could triple as a ransom note for Elon Musk. Deribit, that paragon of stoic silence, reported this milestone on Friday, presumably with a steaming cup of tea and a raised eyebrow.

Options Expiry Alert: Over $6B in BTC and ETH options expire tomorrow at 8:00 UTC-timing chosen as recklessly as a toddler’s Tweet. BTC: A put/call ratio of 1.03 and a ‘max pain’ of $114k means traders are hedging like Victorian bishops at a brothel, but dare not dream too loud. ETH: Because why do one thing when you can whack two markets with one well-timed expiry? – Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) October 23, 2025

Bitcoin’s price clings to life at $108k, while futures OI tumbles 20-25% in recent weeks (a drop so dramatic, it could star in a fat suit rom-com). Options OI now exceeds futures by a cool $40 billion, according to Deribit. One might conclude the derivatives market has transitioned from “casino to cathedral,” as if derivative gamblers have finally opted for a mortgage over a mortgage on a mortgage.

“The derivatives trading structure seems to be rotating from high-leverage to hedging.”

Greeks Live, that stalwart of crypto pessimism, remains as bearish as a funeral in a plague year. Traders, meanwhile, groan like Victorian carriages stuck in mud. The market’s focus is on BTC “struggling” around $112k-a word borrowed from the altcoins’ vocabulary of despair, as gold and equities sprint forward like tourists in a marathon. To be fair, Coinbase’s AWS outage didn’t help. It’s enough to make one question whether “institutional buying” is merely a lifestyle choice.

“Key focus is on BTC’s struggle around $112k with multiple traders noting crypto is lagging behind gold and equities, while AWS outage temporarily halted Coinbase trading and complicated institutional buying.”

On this feast of expirations, 193,000 Ethereum contracts totalling $749 million shall also meet their doom. With a max pain of $3,950 and a put/call ratio of 0.78, the ETH crew are the divas of derivatives, whispering promises of $15 billion in total OI across exchanges. Combined with BTC, Friday’s crypto options expiry notional value totals a grand ol’ $5.8 billion-a tribute to ambition, if not necessarily sanity.

The Spot Market’s Feeble Muster

Over the past day, the crypto market capitalization has swelled by 1.8%, now flirting with $3.8 trillion. BTC led the charge with a brief, valiant leap above $111,000-like a drunkard’s last stand-before retreating. ETH, SOL, and BNB, meanwhile, have enjoyed their moments in the sun, though one suspects the sun is not impressed.

Read More

2025-10-24 08:18