Fed’s New ‘Hawk’ Is a Jerk, and It’s Not Even Lunchtime 😡

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Markets

Oh, the markets-where every day is a new drama, and the only thing more volatile than Bitcoin is my patience. 🤯

What to know:

  • Challenger job cuts for October rose to their highest level for that month since 2003. 🤯 That’s when I last saw a “hug” from my ex. Not a good sign.
  • Year-to-date layoffs are now above 1 million, the highest yearly pace since the 2020 Covid panic. 🙃 Because nothing says “recovery” like a repeat of 2020, but with more Zoom calls.
  • Crypto markets continue to reel from the Fed’s hawkish surprise last week. 🦉 The Fed’s like, “Surprise! We’re not giving you more money. Enjoy your panic.”

With the federal government continuing in shutdown mode, there continues to be a dearth of official economic statistics, including the all-important monthly Nonfarm PayRolls Report, which plays a large role in informing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. 🚫 Because nothing says “we’re in control” like not sharing data. Thanks, guys.

It’s thus elevated the status of some lesser-followed reports and at least one is flashing a major red signal for the labor market. 🚩 Because who doesn’t want a red signal? It’s like a warning, but for your job.

That would be the monthly job cuts report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The October data released Thursday morning showed 153,074 layoffs last month – that’s almost triple the amount seen in October of 2024 and the highest print for any October going back to 2003. 📉 2003! That’s when I last saw a “hug” from my ex. Not a good sign.

“This comes as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes,” said Challenger. “Those laid off now are finding it harder to quickly secure new roles, which could further loosen the labor market.”

Zooming out paints just as grim of a picture, with job cuts year-to-date now topping 1 million, up 65% from the year-ago level and the highest amount since the Covid panic of 2020. 🤯 2020 again! What’s next, a time machine?

The October print for hiring is similarly weak, with just 372,520 hiring plans for the month, the smallest number since Challenger began tracking that data in 2012. 🧐 2012! That’s when I last saw a “hug” from my ex. Not a good sign.

Ball in Fed’s court

Crypto markets continue to reel from last week’s hawkish surprise from the Fed, in which the central bank trimmed its policy rate (as expected), but Chairman Jerome Powell used his press conference to suggest the market participants were highly mistaken in assuming another rate cut in December. 🤬 “You thought we’d cut rates? Wow, you’re even dumber than I thought.”

Since, a number of Fed speakers have followed suit, with at least two saying that had it been up to them, they wouldn’t have even cut rates last week. 🤷‍♂️ “We’re not even trying anymore. Just let the economy crash.”

Yes, inflation was among the worries, but the revitalized hawks are also suggesting the employment market is in solid shape and thus in no need of monetary stimulus. Powell also pointedly noted the government shutdown and lack of official statistics means the central bank is mostly flying blind as it tries to decipher the economy. 🕵️‍♂️ “We’re just guessing. Hope you like surprises!”

The Fed’s reaction to today’s shocking Challenger data will be interesting to note. For now., markets aren’t waiting. The 10-year Treasury yield has tumbled six basis points to 4.10% and market-based odds of the Fed cutting in December have risen to 69% from 60% earlier in the week. 📈 “Wait, they’re actually considering cutting rates? What’s next, a vaccine for my patience?”

Bitcoin is little-changed at $103,000, barely above its panicky lows from earlier in the week. 🚶‍♂️ “Still the digital equivalent of a hot dog at a baseball game. Not great, but it’s something.”

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2025-11-06 17:31