BTC: Will It Fly…Or Flop? 🚀

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Ah, Bitcoin! That most peculiar of digital phantoms, still twitching and sputtering as if struck by a mild governmental inconvenience. They say it struggles, this Bitcoin, to regain its footing, eyeing the reopening of the American government with the anxious gaze of a clerk awaiting his salary. A comparison, you see, to the grand, almost operatic events of 2019, when a similar shutdown – a mere blip on the radar of history, yet treated with the solemnity of a royal funeral – supposedly propelled this digital currency to unimaginable heights.

 

Indeed, this Bitcoin… it continues to flail, much like a landed fish attempting to return to the depths. Prices, they tell me, briefly brushed against $107,000 – a rather vulgar sum, if you ask me – before slinking back down below $105,000 like a guilty schoolboy. A fragile confidence, they call it. Bah! More like the trembling hand of a gambler who’s wagered his last kopek.

Analysts, those endlessly prognosticating scribes, now point to 2019. A shutdown then, a surge afterward! A 300% increase! A glorious spectacle! But, dear readers, let us not mistake a fleeting coincidence for divine intervention. The market of today is not the market of yesteryear. It is… different. (Though how, precisely, no one seems entirely capable of explaining).

Why Traders Keep Whispering About 2019

Some, fueled by hope and perhaps a touch of desperation, recall the surge following the 2018 government imbroglio. From a paltry $3,500 in January of 2019 to a staggering $14,000 by June! A 300% ascent! But to compare then to now… it’s like comparing a robust peasant to a pampered city dandy. The conditions, you see, are entirely dissimilar. These comparisons are like trying to fit a square peg into a round hole – frustrating and ultimately, pointless. 🙄

BITCOIN TO 3x IF HISTORY REPEATS AS SHUTDOWN ENDS

After the last U.S. shutdown ended in Jan 2019, surged 290% in 6 months.

If it does the same now, that’s over $300K .

– Coin Bureau (@coinbureau)

Back then, the market had been thoroughly cleansed! A great crash had swept away the weak, the foolish, the overly leveraged. A fresh start! But now? Now Bitcoin has already reached the dizzying height of $126,000, swollen with the investments of those whose understanding of cryptocurrency extends no further than repeating what they’ve heard in the tavern. A peak, followed by a… correction. A rather delicate situation, wouldn’t you agree?

The shutdown, dragging on and on… it created a certain trembling in the knees, a 20% dip! But still, $100,000 it remains. A far cry from the dreary lows of early 2019.

How a Government Reopening Might Affect This Digital Folly

If the American government were to function, imagine! Smoothly! Uninterrupted! The very idea is preposterous. But if it were to happen, they say, uncertainty would… tank. (A most curious verb, that.) ETFs would proceed. Corporations would resume their affairs. All very… orderly. Like a well-maintained bureaucracy. It’s enough to give one indigestion. 🤢

Liquidity, they assure us, will “steady.” A return to predictability. A rather dull prospect, considering the inherent chaos of the market. But if clarity returns, perhaps the cryptocurrency will indeed experience another “spike.” They speak of triple digits. Such extravagance!

Hopeium: Once Government shut down ends, market will pump back up ?

In 2019, during the U.S. Government Shutdown Dec 22 – Jan 25, Bitcoin dropped −20%, then rallied +300% in the next few months.

Now in 2025, another shutdown BTC has dropped −21% so far. Same pattern…

– Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto)

Should this reopening coincide with… stronger economic data (whatever that may mean) and stable inflation (a concept as mythical as the unicorn), then perhaps Bitcoin could ascend to even greater heights. And, should the events of 2019 repeat exactly, they whisper of $400,000! But such an outcome would require the institutional investors to buy with a fervor not seen since… well, since the last time they were convinced they were missing out on something. A delicate balance, wouldn’t you say?

A more realistic possibility? A modest rise. Half the reaction of 2019. That puts us around $260,000. A third, even, and we are still approaching $200,000. Still… a rather swollen sum for something that exists only in the ether.

Why This Year Still Offers Some Hope For a Decent Rise

Market psychology, dear readers, is a fickle mistress. Traders, they are easily swayed by a compelling narrative. And the idea of a “shutdown rally” is, undeniably, rather… alluring. Even if it is built upon a foundation of sand. 🤨

On-Chain data suggests that the supply is shrinking! Whales are amassing this digital treasure! Exchange reserves are dwindling! This, they say, is bullish. But what do I say? I say it’s all a grand illusion. A carefully constructed spectacle designed to separate foolish investors from their hard-earned rubles.

ETF inflows remain steady, suggesting… something. A moderate climb, perhaps. Not a catastrophic plunge. Such subtlety!

And The Other Digital Curiosities?

Ethereum and Solana, those lesser known cousins of Bitcoin, have also shown a flicker of life during this recent attempt at recovery. A sign of… confidence? Or merely the desperate flailing of drowning men? 🤷

But a repeat of 2019? Impossible! The world has changed. Interest rates are higher. Inflation reigns supreme. The very air feels different. Most agree: a 30% to 70% climb over the next few months is the most likely outcome. That will place Bitcoin between $130,000 and $170,000. And so, we wait. For news from Washington. Like supplicants awaiting the decree of an indifferent Tsar.

The end of the shutdown may not unleash the same manic fervor as 2019, but it might, just might, be enough to steer Bitcoin towards calmer waters… or at least, prevent it from capsizing completely.

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2025-11-12 03:26