Bitcoin, that enigmatic digital entity shrouded in equal parts mystery and memes, appears to be lounging in a peculiar spot. According to a crypto researcher who probably wears a monocle unironically, Bitcoin’s current price is as misaligned with the macroeconomic horizon as a kangaroo in a library.
“The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-reward was during COVID,” declared André Dragosch, Bitwise Europe‘s head of research, in a socially acceptable outburst on X. He was referring to March 2020, when Bitcoin’s price nosedived from $8,000 to below $5,000, presumably because the virus had a vendetta against decentralized currencies.
Dragosch then enthusiastically pointed out that Bitcoin’s current predicament mirrors the extreme risk-reward conditions of the COVID era, but it’s also “pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since 2022.” This period, as you might recall, was marked by the US Federal Reserve tightening its monetary belt and the FTX exchange collapsing faster than a soufflé in a hurricane.
Bitcoin is “pricing in” a recessionary environment 🏖️
“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” Dragosch explained, as if Bitcoin had a crystal ball and a penchant for pessimism. He argued that the asset has already absorbed “a lot of the bad news,” which presumably includes everything from inflation to your neighbor’s incessant leaf blower.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reassured the nation that 2026 will not be the year of the recession unless, of course, it is. Which it probably isn’t. Or maybe it is. Who knows? 🤷♂️
However, Bitcoin’s price has been as disappointing as a decaf espresso this year. After reaching new all-time highs of $125,100 on Oct. 5, it plummeted following a $19 billion liquidation event on Oct. 10, which coincided with US President Donald Trump announcing 100% tariffs on Chinese goods-because why not add a little geopolitical spice to the mix?
Crypto market sentiment took another hit when Bitcoin dipped below the psychological $100,000 level on Nov. 13, and it hasn’t recovered since. It briefly flirted with $90,000 on Nov. 20, but then quickly bounced back, as if it had remembered it left the oven on. 🍪
Dragosch believes global growth will pick up soon, thanks to “preceding monetary stimulus,” which he thinks could fuel growth acceleration well into 2026. Because if history has taught us anything, it’s that repeating the same thing expecting different results is the epitome of sanity.
“I genuinely think we’re staring at a similar macro setup right now,” Dragosch said, presumably while adjusting his monocle.
Bitcoiners are not convinced of a bear market 🐻❎
Other crypto market participants are also cautiously optimistic, which is just a fancy way of saying they’re crossing their fingers and hoping for the best.
Crypto trader Alessio Rastani recently told CryptoMoon that the recent drop might not herald the start of a prolonged bear cycle. Instead, he argued that the data suggests a historically recurring setup that precedes strong rallies roughly 75% of the time. Because nothing screams reliability like a 75% success rate. 🎲
Meanwhile, BitMine chair Tom Lee confidently predicted that Bitcoin will reclaim $100,000 by the end of the year and possibly even reach new all-time highs. Because if there’s one thing the crypto world loves more than decentralization, it’s wild speculation. 🚀
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2025-11-29 03:31