So, this company, Strategy (MSTR), is still hanging out with the cool kids on the Nasdaq 100. 🎉 Good for them. But apparently, 2028 is the year they’ll either be sipping Mai Tais on a yacht or, you know, explaining things to a bankruptcy judge.
They’ve bought SO much Bitcoin, they’re basically a whale… but like, a blue whale. A 🐳 whale that could potentially displace some water. Just saying.
Tiger Research: “2028 Is the Real Test”
Some smart people at Tiger Research have done the math, and it’s not looking great. They’ve pinpointed 2028 as the year Strategy’s finances need a serious intervention. It’s like realizing you forgot your anniversary… in 2028.
Apparently, for a while, Strategy was all about cautious spending, keeping their Bitcoin stash around 100,000. But then they discovered leverage. 💸 Which is always a good idea, right? 🙄 They started using preferred equity, ATM programs (what even IS that?), and big convertible offerings. It was a whole thing. Rising Bitcoin prices just fueled the fire. Classic.
The problem? In 2028, a bunch of call options come due, meaning they might have to cough up $6.4 billion. And they’re, uh, a little short on cash. 😬
No Cash Flow, No Safety Net
Turns out, they spent almost all their money buying the Bitcoin instead of, like, building a business that actually… makes money. It’s a bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off.
“Had the funds been deployed into productive assets, the firm would have a natural source of repayment,” the report said, because SOMEONE needed to state the obvious. “Instead, the focus on Bitcoin accumulation leaves little cash available for redemption.” Duh. 🤦♀️
If they can’t refinance, they’ll have to sell a whole lot of Bitcoin-about 71,000 at $90,000 a pop. That’s enough to send the market spiraling, which is never ideal. It’s like dropping a perfectly good pizza. 🍕 Tragedy.
Bankruptcy Threshold Rising
The point where Strategy goes belly up is currently $23,000. Which sounds…oddly specific. But it’s been creeping up. In 2023 it was $12,000. Inflation, I guess? 🤷♀️
“Strategy’s structural risk appears low under normal circumstances but becomes extremely concentrated in 2028,” Tiger Research warned. They really like 2028, don’t they? “If refinancing fails, selling pressure large enough to impact the entire Bitcoin market could materialize.” Yikes. 😬
And all these other companies trying to copy Strategy? Even more trouble. They didn’t even bother building a safety net! Bless their hearts. 🙏
Nasdaq 100 Retention Amid Skepticism
They’re still on the Nasdaq 100, miraculously, but MSCI is taking a closer look. Some people are saying a company that just holds Bitcoin isn’t really a “technology company.” It’s a fair point. Is your Keurig a technology company? 🤔
Strategy started this whole corporate Bitcoin thing back in 2020, and a bunch of companies jumped on the bandwagon. But now that Bitcoin is being, shall we say, volatile and Strategy’s stock is down 47% in three months, everyone’s wondering if this whole plan is sustainable. Stay tuned! It’s going to be a bumpy ride. 🎢
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2025-12-15 05:52