Bitcoin Drama: Is It a Bullish Comeback or Just Wishful Thinking?

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So, Bitcoin, huh? Still hanging out below $90,000 like it’s waiting for a bus that never arrives. Market sentiment? Let’s just say it’s about as cheerful as a rainy day in December. Analysts are practically throwing bear market parties, pointing fingers at weak breakouts and all that jazz. But hey, not everyone is convinced that Bitcoin is on a downward spiral. Some folks are actually putting their money on 2026-like that’s a good idea! 🎉

Now, there’s this big debate about long-term holders (LTHs). Social media is buzzing with claims that these LTHs are throwing Bitcoin around like confetti at a parade. But hold on! On-chain data tells a different story-like a twist ending in a bad movie. 🎬

According to the great analyst Darkfost-who I’m pretty sure sounds like a character in a suspense thriller-most of the LTH selling we see is skewed by some major movements. You know, like that one time nearly 800,000 BTC got transferred from Coinbase. It’s like trying to read your neighbor’s emotions through a closed window. Not gonna happen!

When you adjust for that craziness, it turns out the long-term holder supply isn’t exactly in a fire sale mode. Instead, it’s stabilizing-maybe even recovering a bit. Who knew? This could challenge the whole bearish vibe everyone’s been riding. Maybe those seasoned holders aren’t panicking after all. 🧘‍♂️

As Bitcoin keeps dancing below key resistance levels, we’ve got this weird situation where prices are limping along while on-chain behavior is doing an entirely different dance. What gives? Sounds like it’s gearing up for a critical moment-whatever that means.

Long-Term Holders: Are They Finally Taking a Chill Pill?

Darkfost-still waiting for his big break-adds some context here. Apparently, the monthly LTH supply change has been stuck in a distribution phase since July 16. So, for months it was like watching paint dry, confirming that long-term holders were slowly letting go of their Bitcoin. Yawn! 😴

But wait! The latest data shows some movement back into positive territory. About 10,700 BTC have transitioned into long-term held coins. Not earth-shattering, but hey, it’s something! Like finding a $5 bill in your winter coat. 🤑

This change is notable because it’s happening while short-term holders (STHs) are just sitting tight-probably binge-watching their favorite shows instead of selling. So, both groups are easing off the sell button, which is interesting, given the pressure on prices. 🤔

Historically, these kinds of shifts have preceded sideways consolidations or-dare we hope-a bullish recovery. Not saying it’s guaranteed, but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on. You know, like that weird guy at the bar who just won’t leave. 🍻

Bitcoin’s Price Action: A Tug-of-War

Bitcoin’s price is in this weird limbo, stuck between support and pressure. After failing to stay above the $100K-$105K mark, it took a nosedive like a bad stand-up comedian. Now it’s hanging out around the $88K zone-just above the 200-day moving average, which is acting like a safety net. 🥴

This area is becoming a battlefield. Buyers are trying to defend it, but it’s like they’re playing Whac-A-Mole-upside follow-through is just not happening. The shorter moving averages are telling us that bullish momentum is still MIA. 😟

Volume dynamics suggest we’re more in consolidation than active accumulation. Selling pressure has eased a bit since the November meltdown, but demand hasn’t picked up enough to reclaim any meaningful resistance. Structurally, it feels like we’re moving from a chaotic selloff into a compression phase-exciting, right? 🎢

As long as Bitcoin stays above that 200-day moving average, the bullish structure from earlier is still technically intact. But if it fails to hold? We might be looking at the $80K-$75K region as the next support. Yikes! Talk about a rollercoaster ride! 🎠

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2025-12-31 05:14