Bitcoin’s Golden Pocket Gamble: Can BTC Reclaim 94K?

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In January 2026, Bitcoin behaved like a jittery traveler with too much caffeine, flitting between roughly $83,000 and $96,000 as if it couldn’t quite decide whether to be bold or stubborn. The folks who watch its every twitch-traders and analysts-are glued to the spectacle, wondering if this wobble will set Bitcoin’s next mood. If you trust the real-time charts and the old-wash of EMA patterns, there’s a strong sense that reclaiming $94,000 is the polite threshold to avoid a further slide into the land of the not-quite-sure.

Current Market Structure and Key Levels

Bitcoin/USD has been skittering inside a descending channel on the daily and 4-hour frames, a staircase of lower highs and lower lows over several weeks that would make a tortoise blush. Between January 21-25, Bitcoin made a valiant-but-faint attempt to pierce the $94,000 barrier (the so-called Golden Pocket) and then paused, as if someone pressed the pause button on conviction and forgot to tell the crowd. The volume faded too, which is market-speak for “we’re not exactly impressed.”

“On the 4-hour chart, BTC briefly reclaimed the prior trade zone on lower volume before stalling-suggesting participation remains cautious rather than conviction-driven,” noted crypto trader Shardi B, renowned for her multi-cycle EMA-based BTC analysis, which sounds fancier than it probably is and may involve more scrolling than a librarian’s dream.

The Golden Pocket corresponds to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of Bitcoin’s recent impulse move, a level that has historically acted as both friend and foe during trend reversals. When BTC failed to hold a close above this zone on January 13, the area shifted from support to resistance, like a door that seems to be saying “after you” but then slams shut when you step through.

Short-Term Support Challenges

Below the Golden Pocket, Bitcoin tests the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement near $85,800-a level with a habit of being reactive, where either the trend decides to press on or decides to take a rain-check (notably in Q3 2023 and Q1 2024 after impulse moves).

Recent candlestick patterns show “bearish compression,” with a lineup of lower highs squeezing toward support like a cat napping in a too-narrow hallway. From January 24-26, BTC kept testing this zone, signaling the buyers’ defense is thinning out a touch.

Failure to hold $85,800 could bring renewed attention to the macro bottom near $74,500, which aligns with the April 2025 Tariff Panic lows. Analysts treat this area as a structural reference point for historical market stress and potential long-term support-the kind of place you visit when you want to remind yourself that markets have old bones.

Potential Scenarios for BTC Price

Market participants are watching two plausible near-term scenarios based on current price action and the stories the charts keep telling:

  • Scenario 1 – Downside Continuation: If BTC fails to hold $85,800 on higher volume, the descending structure could stretch toward the $74,500 macro bottom. This is the sort of retracement that has appeared in the diary of past post-impulse corrections, like a sequel that didn’t learn from the first movie.
  • Scenario 2 – Reclaim & Bullish Momentum: For a sustainable rebound, BTC must decisively reclaim $94,000 with volume confirmation. A daily close above this level, particularly with expanding volume, would signal renewed buying interest and lessen the prospect of further downside. Until that confirmation arrives, minor bounces may resemble temporary interruptions rather than genuine trend reversals.

Weekly Technical Outlook

Shardi B highlighted the weekly chart’s weight, pointing to the 100-week EMA at about $93,850. BTC needs a close above this moving average to hint at a sturdier floor. Currently, Bitcoin hovers near $95,900 with a neutral RSI around 41.5. History suggests weekly EMA tests often coincide with market bottoms and a certain steadiness returning to the trend.

“We have a full week to confirm this bottom candle,” Shardi B noted on X. “A weekly close above the 100-week EMA would reinforce the bullish thesis, providing evidence that buyers are stepping in at key long-term support.”

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin is currently wandering between two significant signposts: resistance at $94,000 and support around $85,800. Real-time charts, past EMA responses, and Fibonacci retracement behavior all point toward one practical conclusion: reclaiming $94,000 decisively would be the kind of move that might persuade the market to take a deeper breath and perhaps march upward again.

While day traders chase daily and four-hour confirmations, long-term holders may keep an eye on weekly EMA closes as the more adult barometer of market bottoms. In the days ahead, Bitcoin’s price action will reveal whether the bulls can reassemble their momentum or whether the market will linger in a cautious circle near those support zones.

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2026-01-29 00:08