Bitcoin: The Comedy of Economic Timing – Will the Bears Ever Relent?

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In the grand theater of the American economy, the ISM manufacturing PMI has taken a dramatic leap, soaring to an unexpected high of 52.6, much to the astonishment of economists who had predicted a modest 48.5. It seems that the economy is not merely plodding along, but rather, it is gallivanting forth with the vigor of a youthful horse at a fair, which could, in turn, inspire Bitcoin to find its long-lost footing. What, pray tell, is the next act in this unfolding saga?

And Lo! The Economy Expands, Mayhap Bitcoin Shall Follow

Thus, we find ourselves at a crossroads; anything above the fabled number of 50 signals expansion, while below it suggests contraction-a truth that has been as constant as a clock. For years, the tightening of liquidity had rendered risk assets like a wilting flower, and Bitcoin, dear Bitcoin, was no exception to this fate.

While we do not expect an immediate resurrection of Bitcoin from the cryptic depths, it is plausible that as the grand economic machinery begins to churn anew, the price of $BTC might just awaken from its slumber.

The esteemed Raoul Pal, a sage of macroeconomic thought, shared his musings on the platform known as X, providing context for our newfound optimism:

“No, dear readers, the ISM is not the oracle of all things cryptocurrency, nor does it promise a one-way ticket to the moon just yet, but it is indeed a prerequisite for the flourishing of crypto prices in the fullness of time (and let us not forget about liquidity). Soon, liquidity shall rise with the same fervor one might expect from a child spotting a candy store.”

Oh, Those Stubborn Bears! The Resistance is Firm

Yet alas, as if mocking the very notion of a Bitcoin resurgence, the bears have clung tenaciously to their horizontal resistance, possibly succeeding in thwarting any attempts by Bitcoin to breach the lofty heights of $78,660. One would think that after nearly eleven attempts to scale this formidable barrier, success would be nigh; and yet, the bears seem to revel in their victories, much like a cat batting around a hapless mouse.

A Double Bottom: A Tale of Hope and Horizontal Support

On the daily chart, we observe the bulls, ever hopeful, eyeing a double bottom accompanied by robust horizontal support lurking just beneath. This support, akin to a sturdy ship in a storm, is crucial, especially with $69,000 being the pinnacle of the previous bull market-a level that must be defended with all the zeal of knights protecting their castle.

Moreover, in favor of the bullish camp, there exists a ‘spring’ emerging from the Wyckoff distribution pattern, coupled with Stochastic RSI and RSI indicators both languishing in oversold territory-a most curious state indeed. The RSI flaunts a hidden bullish divergence as if to say, “Fear not, for brighter days may yet come!”

Is This the Bottom? Or Merely a Precursor to Another Fall?

As we gaze into the future, specifically the two-week time frame, the burning question arises: can this weekly candle maintain its verdant hue and herald the dawn of a new rally? The structure from whence it springs is robust, and unless some fundamental mischief befalls Bitcoin, logic dictates that it should not tumble beneath this fortification.

Interestingly, the RSI at the chart’s bottom approaches the lows typically associated with bear market bottoms, while the Stochastic RSI indicators begin to roll over, suggesting they are nearing the depths of despair. However, they do not have far to plunge before hitting rock bottom.

The higher the time frame, the more weighty their messages become. This two-week horizon suggests that either a bottom is firmly in place, or it hovers tantalizingly close. With the ISM indicating a pivot in the vast machinery of the world’s largest economy, it stands to reason that Bitcoin might just dance along in step with it, provided the bears allow for such merriment.

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2026-02-03 14:18