Analyst’s Price Target Plummets: Is it Time for a Crypto Intervention?

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Markets

What to know:

  • Canaccord’s Joseph Vafi has decided that $185 is the new $474, cutting his price target on Strategy (MSTR) faster than a cat can knock over a vase, while still keeping a buy rating because, apparently, hope springs eternal.
  • Vafi, who was once high-fiving everyone over Michael Saylor’s grand crypto ambitions back in November, now seems to be in a different headspace-perhaps one featuring less exuberance and more cautionary tales of financial woe.
  • But fear not! Strategy is said to be built to weather the storms of volatility, much like a well-constructed umbrella, according to Vafi. He pointed out the company’s modest debt compared to its bitcoin treasure chest, so that’s comforting, right?

As the crypto winter drapes itself over the market like an unwelcome blanket at a family reunion, bulls are left squinting into the darkness, hoping to spot some glimmers of hope among the bearish shadows.

Take, for instance, the latest revelation from Canaccord’s Joseph Vafi. He dramatically slashed his price target on Strategy (MSTR) by a staggering 61%-yes, you read that right-bringing it down to $185 from $474. It’s the kind of news that would make even the most stoic investors raise an eyebrow or two.

Despite this dramatic downward spiral, Vafi insists on maintaining a buy rating, suggesting that he might have a secret stash of optimism hidden away. His new target implies a potential 40% upside from last night’s closing price of $133, which sounds great until you realize we’re talking about a roller coaster that just plummeted off the tracks.

Year-to-date, Strategy is down 15%, with a staggering 62% drop year-over-year, and an almost comical 72% decline from its record high in November 2024. Ouch!

Vafi mused that bitcoin is experiencing an “identity crisis,” which is a fancy way of saying it’s acting more like a moody teenager than the secure digital gold everyone hoped it would be. With a recent identity crisis akin to a mid-life meltdown, bitcoin is trading like a risk asset instead of the stable haven it was supposed to represent.

In October, during the infamous crypto flash crash, things got really exciting-if by exciting, you mean chaotic and terrifying. Forced liquidations turned the market into a scene straight out of a horror movie.

While bitcoin gets labeled as “digital gold,” it’s been having a lackluster performance compared to actual gold, which seems to thrive amidst geopolitical chaos. Gold is basking in the spotlight, while bitcoin sulks in the corner, desperately seeking attention and liquidity.

Vafi assures us that Strategy is poised to handle volatility like a pro, holding a staggering $44 billion in bitcoin against a mere $8 billion in convertible debt. It’s all very impressive until you realize that the numbers are so large they could rival the national debt.

Quarterly results are on the horizon, but let’s be honest-at this point, they’re mostly irrelevant since they depend heavily on BTC, and a sizable unrealized loss from bitcoin’s fourth-quarter tantrum is expected. What a delightful surprise!

Vafi’s new $185 target assumes that bitcoin will rebound by 20% and that the company’s mNAV will recover to about 1.25x-because who doesn’t love a good gamble?

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2026-02-04 18:35