Ethereum: $1,000 or Bust? Larry David Weighs In

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So, Ethereum hit its breakdown target near $1,800, huh? Big whoop. It even dipped to $1,740 before bouncing back. Since then, it’s rebounded 23%. Traders are like, “Oh, the worst is over!” Yeah, sure, keep telling yourselves that.

But let’s be real-price rebounds in a downtrend? That’s like saying your ex texting “hey” means they want you back. The real question is, who’s buying this dip? Charts, on-chain data, and technical metrics say it’s mostly just wishful thinking. Warning signs are everywhere, like a red flag at a bullfight.

The ETH Breakdown Worked, But the Rebound? Meh.

On February 5, Ethereum did its little breakdown dance, just like the analysts predicted. Sellers took control, and the price dropped to $1,740. Then it rebounded 23%. Looks impressive, right? Wrong. It’s like putting a band-aid on a bullet wound.

Between February 2 and February 8, the price made lower highs, but the RSI was like, “I’m doing great!” Classic hidden bearish divergence. Momentum’s improving, but the price is like, “Nah, I’m good.” Sellers are still lurking, waiting to pounce.

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So, the breakdown target was hit, but the rebound? It’s got less conviction than a reality TV apology. Next.

Short-Term Bounce? More Like a Bearish Setup.

The rebound’s weak, and now Ethereum’s forming a bearish pole and flag on the 12-hour chart. Classic continuation pattern. First, it drops like a rock, then it rebounds in a rising channel. Spoiler alert: it’s not a happy ending.

On-Balance Volume is weak. Real buyers? Nowhere to be found. If volume breaks down, this flag structure could collapse faster than my New Year’s resolutions. That opens the door to deeper losses, like 50% from the lower trendline. Fun times.

Short-term traders are buying, but long-term holders? They’re selling like it’s Black Friday. On-chain data shows the rebound’s driven by FOMO, not fundamentals. Sound familiar?

Short-Term Traders Buying, Long-Term Holders Selling. Shocking.

Short-term Holder NUPL shows recent buyers are still in the red. During the 23% rebound, NUPL recovered to -0.47. Big deal. It’s like celebrating a C- when you were aiming for an A. This pattern looks like past failed bottoms. Remember March 2025? Everyone thought it was a bottom, but the real bottom came in April, 75% deeper.

Today’s structure? More like March 2025. Panic hasn’t fully cleared, and long-term holders are still bailing. The 30-day rolling Hodler Net Position Change is negative, with outflows increasing 82% in four days. Conviction? Zero.


So, the rebound’s driven by short-term traders chasing a bounce, while long-term investors are like, “Peace out.” Great.

Key Levels: $1,000 or Bust?

Ethereum needs to reclaim key resistance levels to avoid disaster. First up: $2,150. Holding above that? Maybe. Major invalidation level: $2,780. Only above that does the bearish structure break. Good luck with that.

On the downside, it’s all risk:

  • $1,990: short-term support (good luck)
  • $1,750: Fibonacci support (yawn)
  • $1,510: major retracement zone (April 2025 bottom)
  • $1,000: bear flag projection (hello, rock bottom)

A daily close below $1,990? Rebound’s toast. Losing $1,750? $1,500 is next. If the bearish flag breaks, $1,000 is the target. That’s a 50% drop from here. Volume’s weak, long-term holders are selling, and short-term traders are in charge. Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

Until things change, the risk of a much deeper drop is very real. But hey, what’s life without a little chaos? Just don’t say I didn’t warn you.

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2026-02-09 19:11