Bitcoin isn’t performing as well against gold as many expected, and analyst Willy Woo believes the explanation lies with the potential threat of quantum computing.
I noticed an interesting shift in Bitcoin’s performance today. I was looking at a chart tracking how BTC has compared to gold since 2010, and for twelve years, Bitcoin consistently outperformed gold, showing a clear upward trend. However, that trend appears to have reversed recently.
Woo identified two key events that signaled growing concern about quantum computing’s potential impact on Bitcoin: the initial discussion of quantum risk among Bitcoin’s developers, and the Quantum Bitcoin Summit.
According to Woo, Bitcoin’s value *should* be significantly higher than gold’s, but currently isn’t. He believes this trend changed when people started paying attention to Quantum (likely referring to quantum computing).
4 Million Lost BTC Could Come Back Into Play
This is where things get tricky. If quantum computers become powerful enough, they could break the security protecting roughly 4 million Bitcoin held in wallets where the owners have lost access – meaning those coins are currently unreachable.
Let’s put that number into perspective. Since MicroStrategy began buying Bitcoin in 2020, all companies and spot ETFs together have only acquired a total of 2.8 million BTC. Therefore, the loss of 4 million coins represents more than eight years’ worth of combined corporate and ETF accumulation.
Based on my analysis, I currently estimate there’s only a 25% probability that the Bitcoin network will undergo a hard fork to block the recovery of those coins.
“The market has started pricing in the return of these lost coins ahead of time,” Woo said.
While he believes quantum computers won’t pose a significant threat for another 5 to 15 years – a point he calls ‘Q-Day’ – the financial markets tend to anticipate such events and adjust prices beforehand.
Gold Keeps Climbing, but What About Bitcoin?
The situation is particularly troubling now. Woo believes we’re nearing the end of a major debt cycle, a time when large investors and countries tend to invest heavily in tangible assets like gold or real estate.
According to Woo, we’re reaching the conclusion of the long-term debt cycle, which typically causes investors, including governments, to seek out secure assets like gold. This explains why gold is currently rising in value independently of Bitcoin.
Not Everyone Agrees
Crypto investor Jean Michel Libera disagreed with Woo’s claims, saying he was confusing technical issues with real market dynamics. Libera believes the recent dip in Bitcoin compared to gold is a typical pause after encountering resistance, caused by the natural ebb and flow of buying and selling, not by fears about quantum computing.
Woo argues that recent Bitcoin sales by early adopters – those who held large amounts from the beginning – suggest a different trend than just investors holding onto their coins. These sales indicate where the money is actually flowing.
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2026-02-16 14:42