Crypto Clarity or Chaos? Ripple CEO Bets Big on April Fool’s Eve

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Well, strap in, folks, because Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse is putting his money where his mouth is-or at least his reputation. He’s now giving the Clarity Act a whopping 90% chance of passing by April. That’s right, April. As in, just around the corner. As in, possibly the same month you’ll finally get around to filing your taxes. Coincidence? Probably. But let’s not let that get in the way of a good story.

Ripple CEO Goes Full Bull in a China Shop While Prediction Markets Shrugs

Apparently, momentum is building in Washington like a snowball rolling down a hill-except this snowball is made of paperwork and lobbyist handshakes. Garlinghouse is so confident, he’s outpacing even the prediction markets, which are sitting there like a skeptic at a magic show, betting lower odds. “90% by April,” he declares, with the kind of certainty usually reserved for weather forecasts that are always wrong. But hey, who are we to doubt the man who’s probably got a crystal ball hidden in his desk drawer?

When asked about his previous 80% estimate, Garlinghouse quipped:

“I think it’s now 90% it will pass by the end of April.”

Because, you know, why not round up? It’s not like anyone’s keeping score. He credits the White House’s “hard push” for this sudden surge in optimism, which is code for “they’re probably sick of hearing about it too.”

Garlinghouse also took a moment to remind everyone that Ripple is all about pragmatism. “Don’t let perfection be the enemy of progress,” he said, which is just a fancy way of saying, “Let’s get this done before we all lose our minds.” He also mentioned a White House meeting where Ripple’s chief legal officer represented the company, because nothing says “progress” like a room full of lawyers and crypto executives trying to agree on something.

Meanwhile, over at Polymarket, traders are giving the Clarity Act a 72% chance of passing by 2026. Yes, 2026. Because why rush when you can drag it out for another three years? The chart shows a recent spike, but it’s stabilized in the low 70% range, which is about as exciting as watching paint dry. Still, it’s less bullish than Garlinghouse’s April prediction, proving once again that optimism and reality rarely share the same zip code.

Kalshi prediction markets are equally underwhelmed, giving the bill an 85% chance of passing before 2027. That’s right, 2027. By then, we’ll probably all be paying for coffee with Mars coins. But hey, at least they’re consistent in their lack of enthusiasm. The real kicker? They’re only giving it a 48% chance of passing before May. So much for Garlinghouse’s April dreams.

The hold-up, as usual, is the Senate. They’re squabbling over stablecoin reward provisions, specifically whether crypto platforms can offer incentives to customers moving funds from traditional banks. Because nothing says “progress” like a good old-fashioned bureaucratic standoff. Garlinghouse, ever the optimist, sees this as a sign that traditional banks are finally coming around. “They want clear rules so they can compete,” he said, which is just a polite way of saying, “They’re terrified of being left behind.”

“I love that. That means the traditional financial industry is coming into the crypto industry more and more, and they want to make sure for them to compete, they have those clear rules of the road.”

He also noted that the tides are turning, which is a nice way of saying, “The old guard is finally waking up to the fact that crypto isn’t going away.”

FAQ ⏰

  • What are the chances the Clarity Act passes by April?
    According to Garlinghouse, 90%. According to reality, probably less. But hey, hope springs eternal.
  • Why is the White House involved in the Clarity Act?
    Because someone has to herd these cats, and it might as well be them.
  • What is the main obstacle facing the Clarity Act?
    The Senate. Always the Senate. They’re like the final boss in a video game you can’t beat.
  • How are traditional banks responding to the Clarity Act?
    With a mix of fear and begrudging acceptance. It’s like watching a dinosaur learn to use a smartphone.

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2026-02-23 06:51