Solana’s 9% Bounce: Holders Flee as Doubt Grows

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The price of Solana, that most capricious of assets, has risen by nearly 9% following its descent to approximately $75 on February 23, and yet it clings tenaciously to its gains above the $82 threshold. One might have expected a chorus of jubilation, but alas, the silence is deafening.

Such a rebound typically draws in the steadfast buyers, for it whispers that the storm may have passed. Yet, this time, the narrative diverges most peculiarly. The investors who usually step in during recoveries-those stalwart long-term holders-have instead retreated, as if the very air were poisoned by uncertainty. This dissonance between price and conviction is as baffling as a fox in a henhouse.

Long-Term Holder Buying Has Dropped Nearly 62% Despite the Price Bounce

The most telling sign of faltering resolve emerges from the HODLer Net Position Change metric, a barometer of the long-term holders’ sentiment. On February 10, these supposed titans of the market added a mere 1.5 million SOL. By February 24, this figure had dwindled to a paltry 564,317 SOL-a decline of 62.5% in mere weeks. One might say they’ve traded their resolve for a cup of tea and a sigh.

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In simple terms, Solana’s strongest holders were buying aggressively earlier in the month, but that confidence has faded significantly. When accumulation falls this sharply, it suggests these investors are no longer convinced the current bounce is the start of a sustained recovery. Despite the SOL price bounce, the Hodler positioning is at its lowest monthly level. A tale of two halves, indeed.

This shift is not limited to the oldest holders. Mid-term holders, those who have clung to their coins for a month to three, have similarly begun to relinquish their holdings. Their share of total supply fell from 19.52% on January 25 to about 14.08% on February 24-a 27.9% relative decline in just one month. One might call it a hasty retreat, or perhaps a well-timed exit.

What makes this important is the timing. This reduction persisted even as Solana’s price rose over the past two days. Instead of buying the rebound, many holders appear to be using it as an opportunity to exit. A curious dance of optimism and despair, if ever there was one.

A 22 Million SOL Supply Wall Is Blocking the Recovery

The lack of strong buying becomes more concerning when combined with Solana’s cost basis distribution data, which reveals where investors last bought their coins. This data shows a major concentration of supply between $82.81 and $83.79. More than 22.16 million SOL was accumulated in this range. This is one of the largest supply clusters currently sitting above the price. A monument to past investments, perhaps, or a warning sign for the unwary.

This range represents a break-even zone for many holders who bought earlier and held through the previous dips. When price returns to their entry level, these investors often sell to recover losses or reduce risk in a weaker market. A classic case of “I’ll sell when I break even,” though the math rarely adds up.

This helps explain why Solana’s rebound is already slowing near $82.91. The price is running into a large group of holders waiting to exit at break-even. A collision of hope and pragmatism, if you will.

At the same time, long-term holder accumulation has already dropped by more than 60%, which means there are fewer strong buyers available to absorb this supply. This imbalance between sellers and buyers makes it harder for the rebound to continue. A delicate dance of supply and demand, where the music seems to have stopped.

Solana Price Path Still Points to a 17% Drop

Solana’s technical structure adds another layer of risk to the current rebound. Before this bounce, Solana confirmed a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern and dropped to around $75.69. Even after the recent rebound, the projected downside target from that pattern still points toward the $68.71 region. From the current price near $82.52, a drop to $68.71 would represent an additional decline of about 17%. This means the recent 9% bounce has not yet invalidated the broader bearish structure. A cruel joke, perhaps, but one the market seems eager to play.

For the recovery to strengthen, Solana must first break and hold above $82.91, which is the immediate resistance created by the supply cluster. If that level is cleared, the next resistance sits near $86.82. A move above $91.33 would fully invalidate the bearish pattern and confirm that the downtrend has ended. A happy ending, if such things exist in the world of crypto.

However, continued rejection at $82.91 would increase downside risk. If Solana falls below $80.89 again, it could quickly retest $74.96. A break below that would reopen the path toward $68.71 and other lower levels, which remain the active downside projection from the bearish pattern. A downward spiral, as inevitable as the setting sun.

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2026-02-25 18:26