Bitcoin Price Could Explode to $1,000,000 Based on These ‘Reasonably Conservative Assumptions,’ Says Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan

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In a most remarkable proclamation, Matt Hougan, the chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management, has ventured to suggest that Bitcoin could surge to an astronomical $1 million per coin. His argument, as bold as a hare racing across a sunlit meadow, rests on what he calls “reasonably conservative assumptions.” How quaint. One can’t help but wonder if the assumptions he speaks of are those of a man who has never experienced a financial crisis or seen a speculative bubble burst.

In a memo with a title so dramatic, it almost demands a full orchestra to accompany its reading, “How Bitcoin Gets to $1 Million,” Hougan boldly asserts that many analysts fail to grasp Bitcoin’s true potential. According to him, they do so by treating the global store-of-value market as though it were an immovable mountain, impervious to the winds of change. What they fail to recognize, he suggests, is that Bitcoin-oh, this digital wonder-has the potential to rise like a phoenix from the ashes of traditional investment instruments like gold.

But let us pause and reflect. Hougan does not simply regard Bitcoin as a fancy plaything for the modern age; no, he sees it as a digital store of value that rivals the golden hordes of old. And so, the great math begins. To estimate Bitcoin’s future, one must first calculate the size of the global store-of-value market, then predict Bitcoin’s share, and finally divide that sum by the fixed supply of Bitcoin’s 21 million coins. This, dear reader, is the science of speculation!

At present, Hougan reports, the store-of-value market stands at a staggering $38 trillion, with gold commanding a significant $36 trillion and Bitcoin sitting comfortably at a mere $1.4 trillion. Thus, Bitcoin occupies just shy of 4% of this vast empire. In this current state, the notion of Bitcoin reaching $1 million per coin appears as realistic as one of Tolstoy’s characters suddenly deciding to embrace the joys of capitalism. For Bitcoin to achieve such a valuation, it would need to seize more than half of the market-a notion Hougan himself admits seems rather fanciful without a substantial expansion of the market itself.

But here comes the twist! Hougan, the great optimist, suggests that we have neglected the most important factor of all: the historical growth of the store-of-value market. Why, just think! When the first US gold ETF launched in 2004, the gold market was worth a mere $2.5 trillion. Today, it has grown to nearly $40 trillion. If this rate of growth continues unabated, Hougan posits, the global store-of-value market could swell to a mind-boggling $121 trillion within the next decade. In such a world, Bitcoin would only need to capture a modest 17% of that market to achieve the mythical $1 million per coin.

Of course, one must acknowledge the risks. For every bold prediction, there lurks a shadow of uncertainty. What if the store-of-value market grows more slowly? What if Bitcoin, like an overzealous horse, fails to gallop ahead of its competitors? Yet, Hougan offers hope, suggesting that the opposite scenario is also within the realm of possibility. Perhaps, just perhaps, Bitcoin will rise to claim its rightful place among the world’s greatest financial instruments. The base case, as he puts it, is that the store-of-value market will continue to expand, and Bitcoin will continue to carve out an ever-larger portion of that market. This, he argues, will result in prices far higher than those we see today, like a landowner watching his estate grow ever larger.

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2026-03-16 12:42