Bitcoin Gambler’s $46M Bet: Will Price Surge or Crash Before Liquidation?

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<a href="https://bbg-news.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a> Gambler Faces $46 Million Liquidation, But Price Could Turn Before It Happens

Bitcoin is currently trading at $71,063, a slight increase of 0.23%. Technical analysis shows it’s following an upward trend, and a large bet against Bitcoin (a ‘short position’) is at risk of being closed out, potentially driving the price higher.

A trader recently made a $46 million bet that the price of Bitcoin will go down on Hyperliquid. If Bitcoin’s price rises to $71,712, this bet will be automatically closed, which could actually *increase* buying and help the price continue to recover. However, it’s unclear if the current activity on the Bitcoin network will support such a price increase.

Bitcoin Whales Make a Return

Since July 2025, large Bitcoin holders – those with over 1,000 BTC – have shown a clear trend: whenever the number of these big holders increases quickly, the price of Bitcoin tends to drop noticeably within a few weeks.

The first time this happened was in November 2025, when the number increased from around 1,960 to 1,986, and the price of Bitcoin then went down. It happened again in mid-January 2026, when the number nearly reached 2,010.

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By the end of March, we’re seeing the number of large cryptocurrency holders (often called ‘whales’) increase for the first time in over a month. This pattern has happened consistently before, so if the number of these large holders continues to grow, it could be a strong sign that the market is about to fall again.

Old Bitcoins Are Moving Again

On March 24th, the Coin Days Destroyed metric jumped by about 27 million, reaching one of its highest levels since the period of selling in February. This indicates that a significant amount of Bitcoin that hadn’t been moved in a while is now being transacted.

A high amount of Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) can be seen in two ways. If older coins are being sold, it suggests long-term holders are cashing out during the price increase, which could slow things down. However, if those coins are simply being moved to safer storage or combined in wallets without being traded on exchanges, it’s generally a positive or neutral sign.

If a large number of previously held coins were suddenly sold on exchanges today, it could drive Bitcoin’s price down, potentially dropping it below $70,000.

BTC Price May Drop After Liquidation

Looking at the 12-hour chart, Bitcoin is currently trading within a defined upward channel. Support for the price is around $68,865, while resistance is near $75,851. Currently, the price is at $71,063, which is about halfway between those two levels.

This price level is important because it previously acted as both a support and resistance area back in February. It will be a key test to see if the price can break through it.

The argument for a price decrease hinges on the $68,865 level. Bitcoin is currently forming a specific chart pattern called an ascending wedge, which suggests a potential price drop of around 16% to $57,497. This target isn’t just a guess; similar patterns in the past have resulted in the same percentage decrease, making it a structurally sound prediction.

Conversely, a large short position opened at $72,400 is adding to the pressure in this price range. According to Lookonchain, a trader took a $46 million short position on Bitcoin, using 40x leverage. If the price falls to $71,712, it could trigger a wave of forced liquidations, potentially causing a rapid price increase for Bitcoin towards $74,000.

A trader, identified as 0xedf2, is at risk of having their position automatically closed due to significant losses. They’ve bet against Bitcoin, taking a 40x short position worth $46.31 million. If the price of Bitcoin reaches $71,712.33, their trade will be liquidated.

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) March 24, 2026

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2026-03-24 13:16