Bitcoin Surprises: Outshines Gold in Iran War, And Here’s Why

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JPMorgan has, with the flair of a weather‑watcher, claimed that the Iran war has split the market into two camps: Bitcoin behaves like a weary sailor who’s finally found a safe harbor, while gold and silver-those traditional jewels of geopolitical hedges-have taken a nosedive under the weight of investor outflows, take‑profits and a liquidity crisis that could make even a seasoned investor go white.

In a March‑26 briefing, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his crew reported that Bitcoin has held up steadier than precious metals since the theater opened. Gold is wearing a 15 % haircut this month, with gold ETFs seeing a whopping 11 billion‑dollar bleed in the first three weeks of March. Silver isn’t exempt either; its ETF inflows that simmered from last summer have been unwound, even as Bitcoin funds kept coming in.

Bitcoin Shows Safe-Haven Demand

This divergence isn’t just a price story. According to JPMorgan, it shows up in how people are positioning themselves. Gold and silver had become the most crowded trades after a run that pushed gold near $5,500 an ounce and silver close to $120 earlier this year.

As rates climbed, the dollar tightened, and investors looked to cut risk, those positions started unwinding. CME‑based positions show a sharp fall in gold and silver exposure since January, while Bitcoin futures have stayed relatively steady.

The bank warns against a simplistic “Bitcoin replaced gold” narrative. Bitcoin did sputter with other risk assets when the war broke out, briefly slipping to the low‑$60,000 range before settling back between the high‑$60,000 and low‑$70,000 band. JPMorgan’s point is that Bitcoin didn’t act like a classic shelter at first, but recovered as flows returned, while gold and silver kept losing support.

The resilience of crypto was linked to its utility in a distressed jurisdiction. “The deterioration in liquidity conditions in gold has seen its market breadth decline below that of Bitcoin now,” the bank wrote.

In a separate note from the same report, JPMorgan said, “The surge in Iran’s crypto activity highlights the role of cryptocurrencies as a safe‑haven asset in countries experiencing economic and monetary instability and geopolitical stress.” The bank cited Chainalysis data showing increased Iranian crypto activity after the outbreak, including transfers from domestic exchanges into self‑custody wallets and international platforms.

That mix of borderless settlement, self‑custody, and round‑the‑clock trading sits at the core of the argument. Bitcoin’s momentum indicators, which had dipped into oversold territory, are now heading back toward neutral, suggesting selling pressure may be easing.

Gold and silver momentum, in contrast, swung from overbought to below‑neutral as liquidations accelerated. The bank’s liquidity work points the same way: gold’s market breadth has fallen below Bitcoin’s, while silver’s thinner depth has made its decline even more violent.

At press time, BTC traded at $68,597.

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2026-03-27 14:10