What to know:
- Bullish bitcoin long positions on Bitfinex have climbed to 79,343, the highest level since November 2023.
- Historically, spikes in Bitfinex BTC/USD longs have acted as a contrary indicator, often coinciding with price tops and preceding sell-offs.
- The latest surge in longs, combined with macro factors, point to a growing risk that bitcoin’s bear market could deepen.
That’s right – bets that the price of Bitcoin will rise, known as long positions, have reached their highest level in months on the original cryptocurrency exchange, Bitfinex.
Don’t get too excited, though. Historically, this particular measurement has often signaled the opposite of what’s happening with Bitcoin’s price – increases in this metric usually mean the price is actually going down.
Highest since 2023
CoinDesk data shows that the number of traders betting on Bitcoin’s price increasing (BTC/USD longs) has reached 79,343 – the highest level seen since November 2023.
When investors become more optimistic, it usually suggests prices will rise, which is good news. However, history shows the market often reacts in the opposite way, actually dropping even when things look promising.
For example, bets that the price of Bitcoin would increase (known as ‘longs’ for BTC/USD) went up by 30% in the last three months of 2025, even though Bitcoin’s price actually fell by 23% to $87,550. We’ve seen this happen before, as illustrated in the data below.
Bitcoin’s price tends to reach its lowest point when many traders on Bitfinex are betting the price will go up (going ‘long’), and then rises as those bets decrease. Conversely, the price usually peaks when those ‘long’ bets are at their lowest, and then falls as more traders start betting on a price increase.
Experts used to explain this puzzling situation by suggesting that the general public often makes poor decisions, so it’s usually smart to bet against what they’re doing.
Recent increases in long positions suggest the current back-and-forth price movement of Bitcoin between $65,000 and $75,000 might be ending, potentially leading to a price drop and extending the downward trend that started when Bitcoin was trading above $100,000 last year. However, it’s important to remember that past performance doesn’t predict future outcomes.
However, several other issues also suggest prices might fall, including reports of potential U.S. troop deployments to the conflict in Iran, a sudden increase in oil prices, and concerns that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.
At press time, bitcoin traded around $66,400, according to CoinDesk data.
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2026-03-29 20:24