Bitcoin is currently valued at $70,675. A detailed, long-term analysis of its price suggests this figure indicates something positive that many traders, focused on recent price drops, might be overlooking.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin has dropped to a rare valuation level. Currently, it’s below the 20th percentile based on the Bitcoin Power Law model, meaning it has only been this low in value for about 18.5% of its entire history.
“We are now approaching extreme undervaluation levels,” Darkfost wrote.
What Is the Bitcoin Power Law and Why Is It Flashing Now?
As a researcher studying Bitcoin, I’ve been exploring the Bitcoin Power Law, which is essentially a way to estimate its long-term value. It uses a type of mathematical analysis called logarithmic regression, looking at *all* of Bitcoin’s past price data. What’s different about this approach compared to typical technical analysis is that it doesn’t just focus on recent price movements; it places the current price in the context of Bitcoin’s entire history, factoring in the passage of time.
Why Bitcoin Fell Back to $70K: Iran, the Blockade and the Macro Reset
Peace negotiations between the US and Iran in Islamabad lasted 21 hours over the weekend but ultimately failed to reach an agreement. Following this news, Bitcoin’s value dropped by $3,200, and the broader cryptocurrency market experienced losses totaling $83 billion in a single day, with the overall market value decreasing from $2.47 trillion to $2.39 trillion.
The situation quickly worsened when President Trump declared the US Navy would begin blocking access through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. This news caused oil prices to surge by 7%, adding to existing concerns about rising inflation and likely preventing the Federal Reserve from pausing interest rate hikes.
On-chain data clearly shows the extent of the recent damage. Currently, 13.5 million Bitcoin addresses are holding Bitcoin that is worth less than what they originally paid for it, a result of the price drop since its peak in October 2025 at over $126,000.
Key Levels for the Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin is currently hovering just above a crucial support level, making its position somewhat unstable. The $70,000 mark is a key price point, both psychologically and technically. Analysts are looking for Bitcoin to close the week above $71,000 to suggest it will continue rising. Above that, $74,000 represents the next price level where selling pressure might emerge. However, if Bitcoin falls below $70,000, analysts predict a potential drop to $65,000.
According to Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau, Bitcoin’s rebound is still uncertain. The economic consequences of the war are expected to continue influencing markets throughout the second quarter, and interest rate cuts are unlikely to happen until at least the third or fourth quarter.
Experts at CME FedWatch predict with over 98% confidence that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its meetings on April 29th and June 17th.
Bitcoin Bear Market 2026: Pressured by the Headlines
The standard method of valuing Bitcoin doesn’t consider factors like naval blockades or sudden economic changes. When looking at Bitcoin’s entire history using this method, it suggests the cryptocurrency is currently undervalued.
Whether the weeks ahead allow anyone to act on that is a different question entirely.
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2026-04-13 13:21