Bitcoin’s Big Breakout: Key Metrics Signal Bullish Turn, Says Capriole Founder

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<a href="https://jpyxx.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a> Could Be Near A Bigger Breakout As Key Metrics Turn, Capriole Founder Says

According to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole, Bitcoin could be poised for a significant price increase if recent technical and on-chain data continues to show positive trends. Despite ongoing global uncertainty, a combination of economic factors, investor sentiment, and blockchain activity is looking more promising.

Edwards noted that the current market conditions are particularly challenging due to concerns about war, rising oil prices, and the rapidly evolving landscape of artificial intelligence. Despite these difficulties, he believes the positive signals from Bitcoin and overall economic data are becoming more noticeable. He specifically highlighted that if Bitcoin can consistently stay above $71,500 at the end of each month and week, it would be a key indicator of continued strength.

Bitcoin Technicals And On-Chain Turn Bullish

According to Edwards, if Bitcoin closes the month above $71,500, it will have its strongest monthly performance in a year. He also noted that the recent price increase looks particularly positive on the daily chart, showing a significant upward trend and outperforming other markets since the beginning of the conflict in Iran.

His analysis focuses on how Bitcoin performed compared to other investments, as it had been behaving like a riskier asset for the past nine months.

He combined the chart analysis with several on-chain indicators that reminded him of past periods where Bitcoin was being accumulated. He noted that low normalized dormancy suggests long-term Bitcoin holders aren’t selling, even with recent price drops. He also highlighted increased activity in ‘restacking’ – where holders lock up their Bitcoin – particularly among those holding for over two years. Finally, he pointed to very low SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) readings, which have historically signaled potential for future Bitcoin price increases.

According to Edwards, miners are signaling a similar trend. He points to the Hash Ribbons indicator, which suggests we’re still in a significant phase where miners are selling off their Bitcoin. Interestingly, miner selling pressure is currently quite low. Edwards also highlights a key chart showing institutions are now buying Bitcoin, a pattern that has historically coincided with major price increases over the past five years, occurring when demand outstrips the new supply of Bitcoin.

Overall, the message was clear: the data suggests a positive outlook for Bitcoin, especially now that its price is above $71,500.

Macro Fear Is Fading, But Not Gone

Edwards connected Bitcoin’s recent gains to positive signals in traditional markets. He pointed to a buy signal based on the VIX volatility index – triggered by a drop from over 30 to around 20 – a ‘buy’ reading on CNN’s Fear & Greed index, and a significant increase in US market liquidity, the largest weekly jump since May 2023. According to Edwards, these changes indicate that markets are starting to recover from the most intense period of geopolitical uncertainty.

From my analysis, it appears markets are starting to view the conflict in Iran as a limited issue, rather than something that will significantly impact the global economy long-term. We’ve seen oil prices drop back below $100 a barrel, and a ceasefire between the US and Iran is currently holding. Interestingly, Bitcoin has actually risen 11% since the conflict began, which is a notable shift – especially considering its previous months-long decline. This change in Bitcoin’s performance suggests a potential shift in market sentiment.

He also suggested that the markets might be entering a period of “volatility fatigue,” where investors start to ignore daily news swings and focus again on factors like available cash, growth potential, and a company’s basic financial health.

However, the report wasn’t just optimistic about the market’s future. Edwards also dedicated a significant portion to the rising security risks posed by artificial intelligence to cryptocurrency systems, particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi) and those using complicated smart contracts. He believes that as AI models become more powerful, the time it takes to find and take advantage of weaknesses will shrink dramatically – from months to just minutes.

He gave straightforward advice: if you don’t have a compelling reason to use complicated DeFi tools and smart contracts, you might want to avoid them, especially now that AI is becoming more prominent. He questioned whether the small gains from activities like lending, borrowing, or staking are worth the added complexity.

This cautious outlook actually supports the optimistic view, rather than contradicting it. Edwards believes the market is increasingly favoring investments with potential, rather than being driven by fear – but only for investors who carefully manage risk.

He advised against dwelling on potential problems, but stressed the importance of being prepared. Historically, investments have performed best for those who expect positive results while also carefully managing risks, tracking information, and acting decisively. Essentially, if the market weakens next week and risk indicators worsen, their investment strategy will adjust. For now, though, the outlook for Bitcoin and stocks is positive.

At press time, BTC traded at $74,117.

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2026-04-15 15:59