Why Brad Garlinghouse believes the CLARITY Act will pass in May despite missing two deadlines

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Why Brad Garlinghouse believes the CLARITY Act will pass in May despite missing two deadlines

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently stated at XRP Las Vegas that he believes the CLARITY Act will be passed by the end of May. This is the third time he’s predicted when the bill will pass – he initially thought it would happen in April, and then revised that timeline to May at previous industry events.

Summary

  • Garlinghouse first gave 80% odds of April passage on Fox Business on February 19, revised to end of May at the FII Priority Miami Summit on March 27, and reaffirmed end of May at the Semafor World Economy Summit on April 13.
  • He says the stablecoin yield dispute that paralysed the bill since January is close to resolution, and that the current level of frustration in Washington is historically the signal that compromises finally get made.
  • Senator Thom Tillis confirmed he will ask Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott to schedule a markup when the Senate returns May 11, with the earliest realistic date for a committee vote also the week of May 11.

At the XRP Las Vegas event on April 30th, Brad Garlinghouse reiterated his expectation that the CLARITY Act will be passed by the end of May. He originally predicted an 80% chance of passage in April during a Fox Business interview. According to Disruption Banking, Garlinghouse believes the bill will move quickly through the Senate Banking Committee and the full Senate, reaching President Trump before the Memorial Day break on May 21st. Garlinghouse expressed optimism, stating, “When people are most frustrated, they’re more likely to compromise and get things done,” and feels that point has been reached.

According to crypto.news, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse isn’t the only one warning about a critical deadline for crypto legislation. Senator Cynthia Lummis stated on X (formerly Twitter) in April that 2030 represents the last opportunity to pass the Clarity Act for the foreseeable future, a sentiment echoed by Senator Bernie Moreno. Both senators emphasize this is a limited window because the current agreement between the House, Senate, and White House on crypto rules is unusual and could disappear after the next midterm elections. Garlinghouse’s recent statements don’t contradict this; in fact, support for the bill is growing as it faces delays. A broad coalition of over 120 companies – including Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken, and Andreessen Horowitz – is now backing the bill and recently sent a letter urging lawmakers to prioritize it.

The disagreement over stablecoin rewards – specifically, whether companies beyond the issuer should be allowed to offer yields on stablecoin holdings – had stalled the bill since January. However, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse says this issue is mostly settled now that a White House report showed a complete ban on rewards could cost consumers $800 million each year. The remaining challenge is scheduling: the Senate reconvenes on May 11th, and the Memorial Day break starts May 21st, but Chairman Tim Scott hasn’t scheduled a date to debate the bill yet. While prediction markets like Polymarket (46% chance of passage in 2026), Galaxy Research (50-50), and TD Cowen (around 33%) give lower probabilities, Garlinghouse is still predicting the bill could pass by the end of May – a more optimistic outlook than most market analysts.

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2026-05-02 02:00