Key Highlights
- Bitcoin nears $82,000, the highest level since January 31 and Ethereum clears $2,400 as risk assets rally on U.S.–Iran peace deal progress.
- WTI crude crashes 6% to $95.28 and Brent slides to $97 a barrel after reports of a 14-point one-page MOU between Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner and Iranian officials, with a 30-day window to lift the U.S. naval blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs run three straight inflow days totaling more than $1.16B (led by IBIT and FBTC), while ZEC, DASH and AI tokens like NEAR (+16%) and ICP (+10.4%) lead a broad altcoin rally as the privacy trade returns.
Cryptocurrencies saw significant gains on Wednesday, with Bitcoin approaching $82,000 as trading volume increased, likely due to easing geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin’s price rose sharply during European trading, and Nasdaq futures climbed over 1%, indicating a broader rally in riskier investments. Meanwhile, oil prices fell sharply, with WTI crude dropping around 6% to $95.28 a barrel and Brent falling below $100. This is a reversal from last week, when high oil prices were a major concern for the crypto market.
Overnight, investor sentiment shifted dramatically towards risk-taking. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is strengthening due to three positive developments: progress in a potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran, a significant drop in oil prices (down 6%), and a weakening dollar which is boosting investments in riskier assets. This deal reportedly includes Iran pausing its nuclear program, the U.S. lifting sanctions and releasing Iranian funds, and both sides easing restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, some officials from the previous U.S. administration have warned that similar talks have failed before. The situation with the Strait of Hormuz has been a major concern for the crypto market since late February, and the possibility of it reopening is the most important news right now.
Price data: Top 5 crypto assets
| Rank | Token | Price | 24H Change | Market Cap | 24H Volume | Key Level |
| 1 | Bitcoin | $82,164 | +1.30% | $1.63T | $48.2B | $80,600 support / $83,400 res |
| 2 | Ethereum | $2,412 | +1.85% | $290.5B | $26.3B | $2,350 support / $2,500 res |
| 3 | XRP | $1.43 | +0.80% | $87.8B | $2.74B | $1.40 support / $1.50 res |
| 4 | BNB | $635.20 | +0.85% | $84.5B | $1.32B | $625 support / $650 res |
| 5 | Solana | $86.40 | +1.50% | $49.5B | $5.36B | $84 support / $90 res |
This morning, at 7:03 a.m. Eastern Time, Bitcoin reached $82,305.01, its highest value since January 31st.
As of 7:03 a.m. Eastern Time, Ethereum reached $2,412.01, its highest price since April 27th. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen gains over the last five days, increasing by 5.4% and 5.61% respectively.
Top gainers and losers
Top gainers (24H)
| Token | 24H Gain | Reason |
| Zcash (ZEC) | Double-digit | Privacy-coin trade returns; Multicoin disclosed major position |
| Dash (DASH) | Double-digit | Privacy-coin sector rotation |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | +16% | AI-token bid; CoinDesk 20 leader |
| Internet Computer (ICP) | +10.4% | AI/decentralized compute rotation |
| Bittensor (TAO) | High single-digit | AI-sector continuation |
Bitcoin surpassed $82,000, boosted by a declining dollar which also benefited the broader crypto market. Other cryptocurrencies, particularly those focused on privacy and artificial intelligence, experienced significant gains. Multicoin’s recent purchase signals a change in their perspective on Zcash (ZEC) since 2019; ZEC has increased over 1,500% in the past year, indicating that demand for privacy-focused coins is now a long-term trend, not just a temporary spike.
Top losers (24H)
Despite overall market gains across major cryptocurrencies, selling pressure was limited. Some cryptocurrencies that have already risen quickly, like Monero (XMR), could see a price drop if the current rally slows down. Funding rates for Monero and similar privacy coins have climbed above 60%, which means traders betting on price increases might be forced to sell, potentially causing a sudden price decrease if the upward trend loses steam.
Leverage data
Bitcoin futures are seeing a strong increase in open interest, bouncing back from a low point in late April. Currently, open interest stands at 763.35K BTC, a significant jump from 707.24K BTC on May 1st. This represents a 6% increase, bringing the total value to $29 billion – the highest it’s been since January 31st. This trend indicates that new money is flowing into Bitcoin, rather than just existing short positions being covered.
| Asset | Funding Rate | Long/Short Bias | Signal |
| BTC | Near-flat to slightly negative (~-0.0045) | Cautious long, shorts persistent | Squeeze-prone if $80,600 holds |
| ETH | Positive | Cautious long; OI at ~14.17M ETH | Highest since April 18 — constructive |
| ZEC | Positive | Crowded long after rally | Momentum-driven; squeeze risk if $90 fails |
| XMR | Above 60% annualized | Overheated long | Long-squeeze risk |
| ADA | Negative | Crowded short | Squeeze risk on continued BTC strength |
Funding rates are staying around -0.0045%, which indicates that there isn’t excessive buying pressure, but selling pressure is still present. A key observation in this recent price increase (around 6.5% from May 1st) is that funding rates haven’t spiked sharply. This suggests a potential ‘short squeeze’ situation is still likely to occur.
Bitcoin funding rates have been negative for much of April, meaning traders who bet against bitcoin (shorts) are actually paying those betting on it (longs) to maintain their positions. This creates a volatile cycle where every price increase forces these short sellers to quickly cover their bets, leading to sharp price jumps. This pattern is happening repeatedly, suggesting it’s becoming a consistent trend. Today marks the third time in three weeks that this ‘short squeeze’ has occurred – indicating that traders continue to bet against bitcoin at higher prices, only to be forced to buy it back at an even higher price.
Liquidation data
| Metric | Data |
| Total recent 24H liquidations | $370M (May 4 base; refreshing higher today) |
| Short liquidations | ~$302M (~82%) |
| Long liquidations | ~$68M (~18%) |
| Most liquidated asset | BTC ($179M), then ETH ($95M) |
Bitcoin hit a high of $80,594 early Monday, a level it hadn’t reached since January 31st, but then its price decreased. This price swing led to $370 million worth of crypto being liquidated over the last 24 hours, impacting nearly 97,235 traders, as reported by CoinGlass. The majority of these liquidations – $301.93 million – came from traders who were betting the price would go down (short positions). These short positions were liquidated about four times more often than those betting the price would rise (long positions), suggesting more traders were expecting a price decrease.
Bitcoin’s price is currently attempting to reach $82,000, building on its recent stability. There’s a significant amount of short positions—worth $1.12 billion—that could be liquidated between $81,000 and $82,500. This is in contrast to $4.2 billion in long positions that would be liquidated if the price fell to around $77,000. Currently, this situation suggests the price will likely continue to rise if it stays above $80,600, but a drop below that level could quickly reverse the trend.
ETF data: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana
Headline ETF flows — three straight days of inflows
U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have started May with three consecutive days of positive performance, suggesting renewed interest from institutional investors. These ETFs saw a net inflow of $629 million on Friday, bringing the total net inflows since their January 2024 launch to $58.72 billion. This positive trend continued on May 4th, with another $532.21 million flowing into these funds.
Bitcoin ETFs: BlackRock and Fidelity lead the rebuild
Trading from May 1st to 4th shows that large investors are actively buying Bitcoin again. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $630 million in net inflows on May 1st, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading the way at $284 million and Fidelity’s FBTC contributing $213 million. The buying trend continued broadly on May 4th.
Recent data from CoinGlass indicates that crypto ETFs have seen around $600.8 million in inflows. The majority of this, $532.3 million, went to Bitcoin ETFs. Ethereum funds also contributed with $61.3 million, and smaller amounts went into ETFs focused on Solana and XRP. Currently, the total value of assets managed by all crypto ETFs is close to $123.1 billion.
Ethereum ETFs: Riding the BTC momentum
Money flowing into Ethereum ETFs is increasing, mirroring gains seen with Bitcoin, though the amounts are still lower overall. Ethereum funds saw $61.3 million in inflows on May 4th, and experienced positive inflows consistently from May 1st to 5th – a welcome change after the negative trend seen in late April.
XRP and Solana ETFs: Mixed signal
Both XRP and Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced modest inflows between May 1st and 4th. However, Solana ETFs saw a small net outflow of $1.24 million between April 27th and May 1st, primarily due to selling from the Grayscale SOL Trust (GSOL). While Solana’s price is increasing along with the overall market, this isn’t being driven by ETF purchases – suggesting the recent price rally is mainly due to trading in futures and other derivative products.
Reading the flows
The first week of May shows strong signs of institutional investors returning to the market, especially following news about the Iran MOU. We’ve seen over $1.16 billion in inflows over three consecutive days, largely driven by the BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC ETFs. This is the strongest start to a month we’ve seen all year. What’s encouraging is that Bitcoin is reaching new highs at the same time ETF flows have turned positive – and are building on top of these price increases. This is exactly what investors have been hoping for: institutional money is now driving prices up, rather than waiting for a dip.
Stablecoin and liquidity data
There’s still a lot of stablecoin liquidity in the market, with Tether (USDT) at around $189.56 billion and USD Coin (USDC) near $77.64 billion. The total amount of these stablecoins is growing as more people participate in ETFs. Exchange reserves of stablecoins have stopped decreasing this week – after a dip in April – suggesting investors are preparing to buy assets instead of just holding them. Because Bitcoin still dominates the market, new stablecoin funds are initially going into major cryptocurrencies, with some also flowing into coins like ZEC, DASH, NEAR, and ICP.
Spot vs derivatives volume
The market today shows a mix of activity. Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently leading the way, with significant trading volume confirming their upward breaks. Meanwhile, trading in other cryptocurrencies (like ZEC, DASH, NEAR, and ICP) is being boosted by activity in the derivatives market. A key indicator, Bitcoin’s cumulative volume delta, has turned positive, suggesting genuine buying interest – more people are actively purchasing than simply placing orders at set prices. This is a classic sign of a legitimate breakout, not an artificial price surge.
On-chain signals
Bitcoin’s limited supply is becoming even more constrained. On May 5th, more Bitcoin left exchanges than entered, with a net outflow of 837 BTC. This suggests continued buying, although it was less than the larger outflow of 6,590 BTC seen on Monday, which helps to keep selling pressure low. Bitcoin reserves held by exchanges are near a seven-year low, and the idea that a significant portion of the supply is locked up by institutions like MicroStrategy and through funds like IBIT, plus lost coins (around 26.5%), remains strong.
Ethereum futures trading activity is up, reaching a peak not seen since mid-April with 14.17 million ETH currently traded. There’s strong buying pressure in the market, and the large amount of Ethereum held by BitMine Immersion (over 5 million ETH) suggests continued interest from institutional investors.
This week, we’re seeing strong interest in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies. Multicoin Capital has made a significant investment in Zcash, signaling a renewed focus on privacy as an investment theme. This is a change from their stance in 2019, as Zcash has seen a dramatic price increase of over 1,500% in the last year. With increasing institutional investment and concerns about surveillance, privacy coins are gaining traction.
Macro and traditional market setup
Macro flipped overnight from headwind to tailwind:
- Iran MOU: The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours. Nothing has been agreed yet, but sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began. Resolution would remove the dominant macro overhang on crypto since late February.
- Oil: The cost of Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, lowered to $97 a barrel on Wednesday, on reports of a possible peace deal. WTI crashed 6% to $95.28. The 6% move is the cleanest single-day risk-on signal in months.
- Equities: Nasdaq futures up more than 1%; the dollar softened, lifting all major risk assets.
- Trump’s posture: In a post on Truth Social last evening, Trump said the US would temporarily pause its operation, saying “great progress” had been made in peace talks with Iran. However, he also renewed threats to bomb Iran if it doesn’t reach a deal — a reminder this remains a fragile negotiation.
- Skepticism: Some market participants questioned the likelihood of a durable breakthrough, particularly around nuclear concessions.
Key levels to watch
| Asset | Support | Resistance | Breakout Level | Breakdown Level |
| BTC | $80,600 | $83,400 | $86,000 | $78,500 |
| ETH | $2,350 | $2,500 | $2,600 | $2,250 |
| SOL | $84 | $90 | $95 | $80 |
| XRP | $1.40 | $1.50 | $1.55 | $1.35 |
Bitcoin currently finds strong support around $80,600. If the price stays above this level, it suggests the upward trend will continue, potentially reaching $83,000 or higher. A decisive break above the 200-day moving average (currently around $83,600) with significant trading volume would likely accelerate the rally, possibly targeting $86,000 to $90,000. This moving average is intersecting with a key long-term trend line, creating a critical area that will determine if the recent price increase is just a temporary bounce or the start of a lasting change in direction.
As I’ve been tracking Ethereum, we’ve now broken through and held above $2,400, which is a positive sign. My next key level to watch is $2,500. However, if the price drops below $2,350, I expect the upward trend to weaken, and we might see a retest of $2,250.
Market outlook
The cryptocurrency market is looking very positive, experiencing its best conditions since January. The global issues that caused problems earlier in the year – specifically tensions with Iran and oil prices – seem to be easing, potentially within the next month. Additionally, large investors who had paused their buying are now actively investing again, adding over $1.16 billion in the last three days. Bitcoin has reached its highest price since January 31st, Ethereum has surpassed $2,400, and other cryptocurrencies like ZEC and DASH are seeing significant gains. AI-related tokens are performing particularly well, and a pattern of short squeezes – where prices rapidly increase – has happened three times in the last three weeks, each time reaching a new high.
Several positive signs suggest a potential shift in the market: progress on the Iran MOU, a 6% drop in oil prices, three consecutive days of ETF inflows, and increasing open interest indicating new buyers are entering the market, not just existing short positions covering. With exchange reserves at a seven-year low, BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC are driving institutional investment, alongside ongoing demand for privacy coins and AI-focused altcoins. Bitcoin’s recent move above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages is encouraging, but the key test will be whether it can surpass the 200-day moving average around $83,400. This level will determine if the current upward momentum represents a genuine long-term trend reversal or simply a temporary bounce.
The recent market gains might not last. The rally is happening quickly, and an indicator called the RSI suggests prices could soon fall. There’s also a risk the recent agreement with Iran could fall apart, as similar deals have done in the past. Plus, a lot of money is flowing into certain cryptocurrencies like XMR, which could signal a bubble. It’s important to remember that peace talks usually take months to resolve, not just a few days, so we shouldn’t rely too heavily on this agreement as the sole reason for a sustained market rise.
The best strategy right now is to either wait for Bitcoin to break back above $83,400 with strong trading volume—which would signal a clear upward trend towards $86,000–$90,000—or to wait for a slight price drop to $80,600 that doesn’t see much trading activity, creating a good buying opportunity. Currently, the outlook is positive, but not yet certain. The biggest risk that could change this is any failure in the ongoing negotiations with Iran.
Read More
- Silver Rate Forecast
- USD ILS PREDICTION
- Gold Rate Forecast
- Brent Oil Forecast
- XRP’s Shocking 51,209% Liquidation Imbalance: Saylor’s One-Word Bitcoin Verdict and Cardano Founder’s Scam Alert
- How Bitmine’s Insatiable Ethereum Appetite Is Stirring the Crypto Tea ☕🐳
- 🎄 Crypto’s Festive Flops: Why These Tokens Are More Grinch Than Santa! 🎁
- USD CNY PREDICTION
- XRP PREDICTION. XRP cryptocurrency
- Tina Fey Tackles PENGU: $66M Exit, Korea’s Bull Run, and What’s Next 🦆💰
2026-05-06 21:44