A new analysis of Bitcoin transactions shows the market is at a key turning point. This is happening because the behavior of everyday investors is starting to differ significantly from that of large Bitcoin holders (‘whales’).
Whale Positioning Diverges Sharply From Retail Optimism
On May 16th, crypto analyst Joao Wedson pointed out a growing difference in how regular Bitcoin traders and large Bitcoin holders (often called “whales”) are behaving. He based this observation on a metric called “Bitcoin: Whale Vs Retail Delta,” which tracks the difference in trading patterns between these two groups. This metric can help determine if large investors are becoming more optimistic or pessimistic about Bitcoin compared to smaller traders.
The difference in buying and selling activity between large Bitcoin holders (“whales”) and smaller investors (“retail”) is currently at its lowest point since January 2024, around the time Bitcoin ETFs were launched. Back then, large holders were heavily selling into a market that was overly optimistic.
Now we are seeing a similar behavior pattern.
A large number of people are…
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) May 16, 2026
Wedson notes that the difference in Bitcoin buying and selling between large holders (‘whales’) and smaller investors (‘retail’) is currently at its lowest point since January 2024, when Bitcoin ETFs first became available in the US. This earlier period also saw whales start selling off Bitcoin. The analyst believes we might be seeing a repeat of this pattern now, with whales reducing their Bitcoin holdings while retail investors continue to buy, possibly believing the price has hit a low around $60,000.
Whale activity – the buying and selling behavior of large Bitcoin holders – has often hinted at potential market downturns when prices are rising rapidly. These large holders tend to protect their investments more carefully after significant price increases. However, according to Wedson, this difference in behavior doesn’t automatically mean a price drop is coming. It mainly shows that there’s increasing uncertainty in the Bitcoin market. If this uncertainty combines with other factors, like decreased interest from institutions or slowing investment into Bitcoin ETFs, the price of Bitcoin could fall in the short to medium term.
Bitcoin Market Overview
As of today, Bitcoin is trading at $78,188, down 1.01% from yesterday. Over the past week, its value has decreased by more than 3%. Data from SoSoValue shows that US Bitcoin Spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1 billion last week – the first negative weekly flow this quarter, ending a six-week period of gains. Currently, Bitcoin ETFs hold a total of $104.29 billion in assets, which represents 6.58% of Bitcoin’s total market value.
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2026-05-18 01:00