SpaceX stock, having burst onto the Nasdaq with all the subtlety of a firework in a library, is already inspiring dire warnings of an imminent crash. Traders, ever fond of déjà vu, are comparing SPCX to Tesla’s tempestuous 2010 debut as the company flirts shamelessly with a $3 trillion valuation.
The comparison has split market watchers into two camps: those predicting a dramatic plunge once selling pressure mounts, and those insisting the minuscule public float will keep prices aloft-like a balloon tied to a billionaire’s wrist.
A record debut at a stretched valuation
SpaceX priced its shares at $135 on June 12, raising a casual $75 billion-because why not outshine Saudi Aramco’s measly $25.6 billion from 2019? The debut instantly placed SpaceX among America’s most valuable companies, proving once again that gravity is merely a suggestion.
SPCX has since soared past its opening level, trading roughly 56% higher near $213.95 as of this writing-much to the delight of optimists and the horror of anyone with a calculator.
Prediction market Kalshi reported that SpaceX brushed against a $3 trillion valuation in after-hours trading, supported by $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue. A valuation-to-revenue ratio so bold it could only be described as “Muskian.”
BREAKING: SpaceX reached a $3 trillion valuation in after-hours trading
The company’s revenue in 2025 was $18.7 billion
– Kalshi Finance (@Kalshi_Finance) June 16, 2026
This multiple dwarfs the stock’s earlier $2 trillion debut and makes Tesla’s early valuation look positively modest-an achievement in itself.
Why Some Traders See a SpaceX Stock Crash
Analyst Ted Pillows (a name destined for financial commentary or luxury bedding) summarized the bearish case by likening SPCX to Tesla’s early trajectory. Another widely shared post insisted Elon Musk is simply replaying his 2010 Tesla strategy-because if a trick works once, why not try it again with rockets?
ELON MUSK PULLED THIS SAME MOVE 16 YEARS AGO
Look at this closely:
Tesla IPO (2010) – pumped hard, then dropped 70% over the next few months
Most people only remember what happened years later
SpaceX IPO (2026) – just ran the exact same opening move
Elon has done this once…
– bee🐝 (@0xbeehive) June 16, 2026
The truth, as usual, is less dramatic than the meme. Tesla closed its first day 40.5% above its $17 offer price, doubled within months, then shed about a quarter of its value-not quite the 70% nosedive legend claims. It ended 2011 up 7.3%, before eventually climbing 300-fold, much to the chagrin of early doubters and the delight of anyone who accidentally held their shares.
“SpaceX $SPCX is following the Tesla $TSLA route. An initial pump of 60%-70% followed by a brutal 50% crash,” Ted Pillows wrote.
Investor Jo Bhakdi predicts downward pressure beginning in August, citing the thin float, forced index buying, and a valuation near 90 times 2026 revenue-numbers that would make even Wilde raise an eyebrow.
CNBC’s Jim Cramer chimed in, expressing discomfort at watching a meme-style ascent with almost no sellers. One imagines him clutching pearls off-camera.
Maybe it’s okay to you, but I would hate to see a meme stock-what SpaceX stock has become-walked to the size of Nvidia over a series overnight moves with no sellers. But that seems to be the goal. Maybe early release of those who want to go?? I am uncomfortable watching a stock…
– Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) June 16, 2026
The Case for a Longer Squeeze
Others argue that betting on a crash misunderstands the supply dynamics. Investment adviser Thierry Borgeat noted that the same scarcity inflating the price also protects it-like a rare truffle no one wants to eat but everyone wants to brag about owning.
“Yes, the stock is expensive on every traditional measure… But price doesn’t fall just because it should. It falls when sellers outnumber buyers… Scarcity cuts both ways,” CFA Borgeat noted.
Demand has been ferocious. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas observed that ETFs holding SPCX jumped from four to about 120 in mere days-proof that nothing attracts a crowd like a crowd.
With insiders locked up and retail investors clinging to shares like Victorian lovers clutching forbidden letters, buyers still outnumber sellers. Much like Tesla’s early years, skepticism has done little to slow enthusiasm.
The first true test arrives in August, when early lock-up expirations may finally introduce more supply. Until then, SpaceX stock appears destined to float on scarcity, sentiment, and the gravitational pull of Musk’s ever-expanding net worth.
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2026-06-16 23:26