Is Ethereum’s $9K Dream a Reality or a Mirage? 🤔💰

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Key takeaways:

  • Ether (ETH) has soared 50% in two weeks, and some models predict a $9,000 peak by early 2026. 🚀
  • Strong onchain fundamentals: 28% of ETH is staked, exchange balances are at 2016 lows, and new buyers are flooding in. 📈
  • Network usage remains near capacity, despite block gas limit increases. 💻

Ether (ETH) has surged 50% in just two weeks, rekindling the interest of investors who had grown weary of a rather uneventful cycle. Yet, at $3,730, ETH still lags 23% behind its all-time high from November 2021. Some analysts now whisper of price targets that could more than double its current value. Could the best truly lie ahead for the second-largest cryptocurrency? Onchain trends, trading flows, and blockchain activity all hint that the rally might just be getting started. 🌟

ETH Charts Point to Undervaluation

Despite its recent gains, ETH still seems to lag behind the broader market sentiment. According to Glassnode, the MVRV Z-score, which compares Ethereum’s market cap to its realized cap, remains well below peak cycle values. While ETH is no longer in the “bearish” range, it still trades far from the euphoric highs. 📉

Compared to Bitcoin, ETH has a lot of catching up to do. Over the past year, BTC has rallied 74%, while ETH dropped 28%, widening the performance gap. But this strength has come at a cost: BTC dominance is now historically elevated. Analysts at Bitcoin Vector suggest that ETH is “under-owned, undervalued, and in catch-up mode.” A rotation might be brewing. 💼

In the near term, the $4,000 mark stands as a critical psychological and technical barrier. If ETH breaches this level, many analysts predict a surge. 🌪️

Elliott Wave analysis, a model that posits market prices move in five recurring, psychology-driven wave patterns, suggests that ETH is advancing through a third impulsive wave. If the pattern holds, this phase could peak around $9,000 by early 2026, provided macro conditions remain supportive. That would mark Ethereum’s next major breakout before the next market downturn. 📊

Onchain Trends Point to Tightening Supply and Increasing Demand

Onchain metrics suggest that Ether’s bullish setup is not just speculative—it’s structural. Currently, more than 34 million ETH is staked, representing 28% of the 120.7 million total supply. This is capital locked away for the long term, reducing circulating supply and signaling strong investor confidence. 🛡️

The remaining supply isn’t particularly liquid. Exchange balances have plummeted to 16.2 million ETH, the lowest level since 2016. Reduced sell-side liquidity tends to support upward price moves, especially when paired with fresh demand. 📢

This demand appears to be on the rise. Since early July, the supply held by first-time buyers has increased by about 16%, according to Glassnode. This influx of short-term holders suggests growing interest from new market participants. Glassnode analysts admit this is the first sign of a trend reversal they’ve noted. 📈

Beyond onchain metrics, this trend is also evident in the surge of spot Ether ETF inflows, which have gained over $4 billion in the past two weeks. 📈

Approximately 94.4% of ETH’s supply is currently in profit. However, unrealized sentiment remains surprisingly muted. Glassnode’s NUPL indicator (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) registers 0.47 for ETH, a zone labeled “Optimism/Anxiety.” For comparison, Bitcoin reads 0.57 and Ripple 0.62—both entering “Belief/Denial.” This suggests ETH still has room to grow before investor euphoria sets in. 🌱

Ethereum Activity: Capacity Expands, and Demand Keeps Up

Beyond speculation, Ether’s value hinges on actual usage, and this activity is growing in subtle but significant ways. While average transaction fees have dropped to historic lows—just 0.0004 ETH per transfer—this doesn’t mean Ethereum is quiet. Instead, it reflects improved efficiency, especially with much of the load now handled by layer 2 solutions. To gauge demand on the network, fees in ETH can be misleading; gas offers a clearer picture of the actual computational work being consumed. 🧮

As Ethereum pushes for scalability, block gas limits have been steadily raised—most recently in July 2025, following earlier increases in February 2025, September 2022, May 2021, and June 2020. Notably, after nearly every adjustment, blocks filled almost immediately and stayed that way. This suggests that demand wasn’t just responsive—it was already there, waiting. Early signs from this Tuesday’s upgrade point to the same pattern repeating. In effect, Ethereum has been operating at or near full capacity, with latent demand consistently surfacing the moment new room is made. 🚀

Transaction types have evolved. NFTs, which once consumed much of Ethereum’s blockspace in 2021, now represent a tiny share. DeFi has also cooled. Rising instead is a broad category of “Other” DApps: infrastructure protocols, rollup proof publishing, automation, and likely new types of modular apps. Stablecoin transactions and “vanilla” ETH transfers—simple value movements from one address to another—are also on the rise. This signals increased settlement and trading activity, consistent with a developing bull run. 📈

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2025-07-26 00:51