As an analyst, I’m watching Bitcoin’s recent price surge closely, and we’ve now hit a significant area of technical and on-chain resistance. According to CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno, several indicators are now suggesting a higher probability of a price correction after the strong recovery we saw from the April lows.
According to Moreno at CryptoQuant, indicators have been suggesting a possible price decrease for Bitcoin for several weeks. These indicators include high profits, increased selling activity in both current and future markets, decreasing demand in the US, and key price resistance levels. Their recent analysis shows Bitcoin approaching its 200-day moving average, which will be a crucial test to determine if the recent price increase is sustainable or just a temporary bounce within a larger downward trend.
Why The Bitcoin Correction Risk Is Rising
Bitcoin is facing a key challenge at around $82,400, a level known as the 200-day moving average. This comes after the price jumped 37% from its low point in April. According to a report from CryptoQuant on May 13th, this situation is similar to what happened in March 2022, when Bitcoin also rose significantly (43%) before encountering this same moving average, and then the price started to fall again. The report suggests we may see a similar pattern this time, with profit-taking and weak demand in the US potentially stopping the current rally.
The firm is being careful, largely because of what happened in March 2022. According to CryptoQuant, the 200-day moving average isn’t just a technical indicator; it’s a level where previous attempts to recover during bear markets stalled due to low buying interest and many investors selling to take profits. Bitcoin’s recent 37% increase from its April low has brought the market back to a similar critical point.
One major worry right now is that crypto traders are seeing big paper profits. CryptoQuant reported these profits hit 17.7% on May 5th – the highest they’ve been since June 2025. This is significant because traders with substantial unrealized gains are often more likely to sell when prices go up, particularly as the price nears a key resistance point.
The company noted that current profit margins are similar to those seen in March 2022, right before Bitcoin’s price fell again after briefly testing a key technical level. This doesn’t guarantee history will repeat itself, but it suggests a similar risk of price drops if demand doesn’t increase.
Recent profit data indicates that some investors are starting to sell their cryptocurrency. CryptoQuant reported a significant increase in daily profits on May 4th, reaching 14.6K BTC – the highest level since December 10, 2025. Historically, similar spikes in profits during periods of market recovery have often signaled a peak in prices, as short-term holders quickly sell their holdings while prices are high.
CryptoQuant also points to weak demand as a concern. They noted that the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase dropped below the typical market price in late April, even as Bitcoin neared $80,000. This suggests that interest from US investors was slowing down.
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin price increases typically need consistent buying pressure on Coinbase from US institutions to be sustained. The current price increase doesn’t seem to have that support, suggesting it might not last.
While demand for Bitcoin has improved, it’s still negative overall. The amount of Bitcoin lost to negative demand decreased significantly from 91,000 BTC in April to 11,000 BTC, suggesting the situation is getting better, though not yet strong enough to indicate a consistent increase in long-term buying. CryptoQuant also observed that the recent growth in demand seems to be driven more by short-term trading in futures contracts rather than actual purchases of Bitcoin.
According to CryptoQuant, a key on-chain support level exists around $70,000. This level, known as the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price, has often acted as a floor during price drops, as it represents the average price short-term traders originally paid for their Bitcoin.
At press time, BTC traded at $76,961.
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2026-05-20 00:06