Bitcoin: Not an Inflation Hedge, But a Dollar Wobbler? 🚀

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Ah, the age-old myth that Bitcoin is a shield against inflation. How quaint! According to NYDIG, it’s less of a financial knight in shining armor and more of a crypto confetti cannon that’s thrilled when the dollar wobbles. 🎉

“The community likes to pitch Bitcoin as an inflation hedge,” said Greg Cipolaro, who clearly has a PhD in deflating bubbles. “But unfortunately, here, the data is just not strongly supportive of that argument.” Translation: “We’re all just winging it, but let’s act like we know what we’re doing.” 😅

“The correlations with inflationary measures are neither consistent nor are they extremely high,” he added, as if that wasn’t the whole point of a hedge. Cipolaro also noted that “expectations of inflation are a better indicator” for Bitcoin-because nothing says “financial stability” like hoping for a crisis. 🤷‍♂️

Bitcoin proponents, ever the romantics, call it “digital gold,” because nothing says “hedge against inflation” like a cryptocurrency that’s more volatile than my ex’s emotions. But now it’s “more ingrained in the traditional finance system,” which sounds less like a triumph and more like a toddler being forced to sit at the adult table. 🍽️

Cipolaro also revealed that real gold isn’t much better as an inflation hedge. “Surprising for an inflation protection hedge,” he said, as if gold had a duty to perform. Next thing you know, the moon will be made of cheese. 🌕

The Dollar’s Wobble: A Boon for Bitcoin and Gold? 🤷‍♂️

Cipolaro explained that gold has “typically risen as the US dollar has fallen,” which is like saying “the sky is blue” in a world where the sky is constantly changing colors. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has an “inverse correlation to the US dollar,” but it’s “less consistent and newer than gold’s.” So, it’s like the awkward cousin who’s still learning the family rules. 🧑‍🤝‍🧑

Cipolaro said NYDIG expects Bitcoin’s inverse correlation with the dollar to strengthen as it becomes “more embedded in the traditional financial market ecosystem.” Because nothing says “trust us” like a cryptocurrency that’s still figuring out how to tie its shoes. 👟

Interest Rates and Money Supply: The Real Showrunners? 🎬

Interest rates and money supply are the real stars of the show. Gold, as always, plays the supporting role, while Bitcoin is the new kid on the block trying to find their groove. “The relation between global monetary policy and Bitcoin has also been persistently positive,” Cipolaro said, which is code for “we’re all just hoping for the best.” 🙏

“If we were to summarize how to think about each asset from a macro factor perspective,” he added, “it is that gold serves as a real-rate hedge, whereas Bitcoin has evolved into a liquidity barometer.” In other words: “Gold is the reliable uncle, and Bitcoin is the chaotic cousin who’s always borrowing money.” 💸

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2025-10-27 05:29