Bitcoin Rallies as S&P 500 Hits Record, But Options Market Signals Caution

Markets

What to know:

Bitcoin rose to $74,935 during trading in Asia on Thursday, a 0.7% increase over the past day and a 5.4% gain for the week. This happened as U.S. stock markets hit record highs following news that the U.S. and Iran had tentatively agreed to continue talks beyond the April 7th deadline for a ceasefire.

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 reached record highs on Friday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.8% and the Nasdaq 100 climbing 1.4%. This capped off a two-week period of gains, starting from lows seen in late March.

Ether performed strongly, increasing by 8.1% this week to reach $2,360, and continued to outperform Bitcoin. Other notable gains included XRP, which rose 3.6% to $1.41, dogecoin, up 4.8% to $0.098, and solana, which increased by 2.2% to $85.

Stock prices have been rising quickly, but other markets aren’t showing the same optimism. Long-term Treasury bond yields stayed relatively flat, and gold prices remained around $4,800. Oil prices edged up to $95 a barrel as the U.S. continued to enforce a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is still largely closed to traffic.

According to Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, the stock market seems to be signaling that the Persian Gulf War is nearing its end.

As a crypto investor, I’m seeing some interesting signals in the derivatives market. QCP Capital pointed out on Telegram that this Bitcoin rally seems to be driven by actual buying – people stepping in to own Bitcoin – rather than a general wave of investors taking on more risk across the board. Basically, it’s a good sign because it suggests genuine demand, not just a temporary bounce fueled by speculation.

Bitcoin perpetual funding rates are still negative, and trading activity has decreased slightly. This suggests that traders betting against a price increase (shorts) aren’t yet covering their positions, but are instead resisting the current upward trend. Volatility expectations for the near term remain low, with short-term volatility lower than longer-term, and there’s still more interest in protecting against price drops than in profiting from price increases.

Even though Bitcoin’s price is currently going up, the options market suggests traders are still wary. Options expiring soon aren’t showing the typical excitement you’d expect with a genuine price surge, and people are still buying protection against a price decrease rather than wagering on further gains. This pattern is more characteristic of a temporary recovery, rather than a lasting shift in trend.

“Markets may be trading the ceasefire angle, but the core risk remains unresolved,” QCP wrote. The firm pointed to the gap between Iran’s 60% enriched uranium and the U.S. demand for below 20% as the structural issue a framework headline cannot close.

The ether outperformance is the one signal that can’t be explained by bitcoin-specific flows.

The price of Ether compared to Bitcoin recently rose to around 0.0315. This is a recovery from a low point earlier this year and the first time in several months that Ether has consistently outperformed Bitcoin.

For weeks, Ethereum’s network activity has been strong despite price fluctuations. The number of transactions on the network reached a record 200.4 million in the first quarter, and the total value of stablecoins on Ethereum hit a new peak of $180 billion.

Traders are looking for signals during the next market downturn. If Ether performs better than Bitcoin when prices are falling, it suggests investors are actually shifting towards more risky assets. However, if Ether falls even faster than Bitcoin, it likely means Ether’s recent gains were just following Bitcoin’s lead and were more volatile.

Traders are keeping a close eye on talks between the U.S. and Iran, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program, as a temporary agreement is set to expire next week. QCP believes this current situation is only a temporary reprieve, not a lasting solution, and that assumption should be carefully examined.

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2026-04-16 07:59