Bitcoin to Hit $150K by October? Twain Would Have Bought a Steamboat

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Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin, bless its wild heart, might just hoof it up to $150,000 before the leaves finish fallin’ in October, if you reckon by those halving-cycle whatnots.

  • New BTC investors are piling in, like townsfolk when the circus comes—only with more risk and fewer elephants.

Well now, it appears Bitcoin (BTC) is saddling up for what could be the grand hoedown of this current bull market. If you listen to those halving-based fractal fellers—and I do love me a good fractal, though I prefer my math without headaches—history hints we’re just three months on the clock from a bona fide market peak come October. If history’s ever right, I’ll eat my hat. And I fancy my hats.

Bitcoin may peak around $150,000 by October

A certain “tick-tock” pattern—courtesy of the ever-watchful CryptoBullet—suggests old Bitcoin gets as jumpy as a tomcat in a room full of rocking chairs about 518 to 546 days after each halving. For the record, that last halving showed up on April 15, 2024, right on time like a tax bill or an unwanted relative.

As of the end of July, we’re sitting on about 77 days before the big moment when the BTC price could do its best imitation of a geyser—assuming history’s feeling charitable this season.

CryptoBullet, probably eyeing his stopwatch, announced:

“BTC Bull Cycle: only 3 months left. Tick tock, tick tock”

If you’re the betting kind, the house odds say October’s the month to watch. Some town crier types claim the price could tapdance its way up to $130,000, maybe even $150,000; a brave few are shouting numbers so high, they’d make your Aunt Hattie faint—$200,000 or thereabouts. (If only you could buy salt pork futures with that!)

Bitcoin long-term holders still in their rocking chairs

Onchain data, that newfangled sorcery, lends weight to the idea that Bitcoin’s got a few more miles to cover this summer.

A smart number-wrangler by the name of Axel Adler Jr. trotted out a metric that pits the greenhorns against the old-timers. Turns out, these fresh-faced “young coins” account for about 30% of the action on the market right now—which means there’s still room for shenanigans.

When that number hit 64% in March 2024 and 72% in December 2024, prices soared like a cat with a rocket on its tail. Those were the euphoric times when FOMO was running wilder than a river during floods. Today? Things are rowdy, but we’re nowhere near repeating those circus tricks just yet. 🎪

The surge shows that newcomers are elbowing their way in, eager for adventure—or misadventure. Meanwhile, the old-timers haven’t run for the exits. Not yet, anyhow.

“Old holders are still selling moderately: a coefficient of 0.3 means that the supply of three-year-old coins is still absorbing young demand without sharp fluctuations,” Axel writes, probably while sipping something strong.

“From the perspective of old wallet capitulation risk, the market looks balanced.”

Makes sense. The bigwigs and institutions—bless their complicated spreadsheets—are buying up Bitcoin like it’s land before a railroad, keeping sell-offs contained. Thanks to this slow-and-steady absorption, the market manages to stay upright on its wobbly bull-cycle legs. For now, anyhow.

So, buckle up, folks. Bitcoin’s fixing for a wild ride toward October—just don’t expect it to stop for directions.

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2025-07-31 20:48