Markets
What to know:
Bitcoin, that most audacious of digital alchemists, has ascended by 3.5% since the conflict began, while gold, once the aristocrat of safe havens, has been unceremoniously stripped of its gilded robes, dropping 5%, and silver-poor, overexposed silver-has plummeted 12%.
The “Coinbase premium,” a rather unseemly premium for the discerning investor, has made a triumphant return, alongside spot ETF inflows, suggesting large-scale U.S. investors are treating this chaos as a discount sale at the bazaar of speculation.
The rally, supported by a “cleaner” market, is a curious spectacle: risky bets have been purged like vermin from a drawing room, leaving only the timid and the spot-driven to tiptoe forward.
The outbreak of war in the Middle East, that perennial source of geopolitical drama, has rattled global markets, yet bitcoin, that most peculiar of modern relics, has performed the improbable feat of outperforming stocks. A feat akin to a vicar quoting Nietzsche at a garden party.
Bitcoin has risen about 3.5% to $68,000 since the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the U.S. began, according to CoinDesk data. Over the same period, gold has faltered like a debutante at her first ball, and the Nasdaq 100 has declined like a man in a waistcoat who forgot to button it.
The divergence has widened over the past 24 hours, with bitcoin up more than 2.5% while U.S. equity futures remain in the red. WTI crude briefly surged to $116 per barrel, a price so absurd it could only be conjured by a man with a calculator and a death wish. However, comments from G7 leaders-those paragons of wisdom-about potentially releasing oil reserves cooled the rally, as crude retreated to $100 per barrel, a price that now seems almost dignified.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, that stalwart of stability, has strengthened, with the DXY index rising to just above 99. Treasury yields have also climbed, as if the market were a fussy guest at a dinner party, demanding more seasoning with every passing hour.
Bitcoin’s outperformance, after weeks of a brutal sell-off that saw prices nearly halve, is a testament to the market’s ability to confound expectations. With sentiment already as fragile as a soufflé, many anticipated further collapse. Instead, the market has done what it does best: baffle everyone with a performance that would make a magician blush.
Tracking tech stocks
Despite bitcoin’s relative strength, it still clings to the coattails of technology stocks. The iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF (IGV), a benchmark for the software sector, has gained 7% since the conflict began, rebounding from $76 to $88-a recovery that would make a Victorian novelist weep for the sheer improbability of it.
Derivative market signals, those cryptic missives from the financial hinterlands, suggest stabilization. Open interest in coin margined futures has declined, a sign that leverage is being flushed from the system like a bad martini. Funding rates remain negative at -3.5%, meaning short sellers are paying longs-a situation so absurd it could only exist in a world where logic is optional.
At the same time, the Coinbase premium has returned, a relic of the 2021 frenzy. Its reappearance, alongside spot ETF inflows, suggests institutional buyers may be returning to the market, treating these oversold levels as a bargain basement for digital gold. One can only hope they remember to bring a flashlight.
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2026-03-09 14:55