Bitcoin’s $100k Trial: Will It Rise Again? 💸🔥

The Bitcoin beast, once soaring high, took a tumble below $100,000, testing the resolve of investors like a storm testing a barn roof. But lo! It rose again, proving that even in the darkest hours, hope flickers like a candle in the wind. 🌪️

Analysts, ever the optimists, whisper that despite the chaos, Bitcoin’s path is paved with gold, though they might be wearing rose-colored glasses. 🧢 Their words are as reliable as a desert rainstorm-unpredictable and fleeting. 🌦️

PlanB: Mid-Cycle, Not Mania 🧠

PlanB, the sage of the S2F model, sees this dip as a mere hiccup in a long journey, like a farmer pausing to catch his breath before the harvest. 🌾 His charts show Bitcoin clinging to $100k like a lifeline, a shift from foe to friend. ⚙️

He argues that the market hasn’t reached euphoria yet, with the RSI still around 66. This is like a toddler’s temper-still simmering, but not yet a full-blown tantrum. 😡

“Without that mania phase,” he notes, “we’re likely not at the final top.”

PlanB expects the next major leg higher could target the $250,000-$500,000 range, provided Bitcoin continues diverging from its realized price-like a rebellious teen avoiding their parents’ rules. 🚫

Arthur Hayes: Stealth QE Ahead 🚀

Arthur Hayes connects Bitcoin’s short-term weakness to tightening US dollar liquidity. Since the US debt ceiling was raised in July, the Treasury General Account (TGA) has swelled, draining liquidity from markets like a thirsty camel. 🐪

$BTC (yellow) -5%, $ liq (white) -8% since US debt ceiling raised in July. TGA build up sucked $ out of the system. When US gov shutdown ends, TGA will fall +ve for $ liq, and $BTC will rise … and $ZEC will go up MOAR!

– Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 5, 2025

Hayes notes this dynamic caused both Bitcoin and dollar liquidity indices to drop in tandem, like two weary travelers sharing a cold meal. 🍽️

However, he predicts the coming reversal-once the US government reopens and spends down its TGA balance-will mark the start of “stealth QE.” Like a ghost in the machine, the Fed will inject liquidity without admitting it. 👻

In his words: “When the Fed starts cashing the checks of politicians, Bitcoin will rise.”

Raoul Pal: The Liquidity Flood Lies Ahead 🌊

Raoul Pal’s liquidity model paints a similar picture. His Global Macro Investor (GMI) Liquidity Index-tracking global money supply and credit-remains in a long-term uptrend, like a slow-burning fire. 🔥

Pal calls the current phase a “Window of Pain,” where liquidity tightness and investor fear test conviction. But he expects a sharp reversal soon, like a spring thaw after a long winter. ❄️➡️🌸

Treasury spending will inject $250-350 billion into markets, quantitative tightening will end, and rate cuts will follow. A symphony of economic maneuvers, if you can call it that. 🎻

As liquidity expands globally-from the US to China and Japan-Pal says, “When this number goes up, all numbers go up.” A truth as old as the hills, or at least as old as the stock market. 📈

The Outlook: Accumulation Before Expansion 🧱

Across models, the consensus is clear: Bitcoin has weathered its liquidity-driven correction. Large holders are buying, technical support has held, and the macro setup points toward renewed liquidity expansion. Like a phoenix, it rises from the ashes-though the ashes are made of digital gold. 💰

Short-term volatility may persist as fiscal and monetary gears realign, but structurally, the next phase favors gradual recovery and accumulation. A slow burn, but a burn nonetheless. 🔥

If liquidity indicators begin to rise again in Q1 2026, both Hayes and Pal suggest the next Bitcoin rally could unfold from the same foundation it just survived-the $100,000 crash test. A test of endurance, if nothing else. 🏁

Additionally, CryptoQuant data indicates that large Bitcoin holders-wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC-added approximately 29,600 BTC over the past week, valued at roughly $3 billion. A move as subtle as a whisper, yet as impactful as a thunderclap. 🌩️

Their collective balance rose to 3.504 million BTC. This marked the first major accumulation phase since September. Like a farmer sowing seeds in spring, they plant their bets for a future harvest. 🌾

This buying spree occurred as retail sentiment plunged and ETFs recorded $2 billion in outflows. A tale of two worlds: the whales swim in calm waters while the sheep bleat in the storm. 🐑

Analysts interpret this divergence as a sign that institutional players are quietly reloading, strengthening Bitcoin’s support zone near $100,000. A silent army, preparing for the next march. 🚀

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2025-11-08 10:52