Bitcoin is starting the week with a clear set of potential price targets. DeFi researcher Sherlockwhale has identified four key levels that could influence where the price goes, based on an analysis of over 450 weeks of historical data. This framework focuses on how Bitcoin’s price performs at the beginning and middle of each week to predict future movement.
Bitcoin’s Weekly Structure Sets The Stage
Last week, Bitcoin finished near $76,000, which was a 7.2% increase from the start of the week, according to Sherlockwhale. However, a closer look at the price action suggests the increase wasn’t as strong as it seems. The price reached as high as $78,333 before falling back, and experienced a 1.79% decrease on Saturday with only a small bounce back on Sunday. Ultimately, Bitcoin ended the week having traded about 70% of its potential price range.
This is significant because the price stayed high for a while, but couldn’t maintain its peak, suggesting sellers stepped in. According to past performance, when Bitcoin surpasses the previous week’s high but then closes like this, there’s about a 62% chance the price will decrease the following week.
Looking ahead, four price points – $79,800, $79,116, $74,480, and $69,861 – are especially important. The analyst believes these levels will be key indicators, depending on how the price closes on Mondays and Wednesdays.
The Four Bitcoin Price Levels That Define the Week
A price of $79,800 is a key level to watch, as it’s about 5% higher than the weekly opening price. According to data from Sherlockwhale, when Monday closes above $79,800, there’s a very high chance – almost 90% – that the week will end with gains. This success rate has even improved to 95.5% since 2021. Just below that, $79,116, which is about 1% above the recent high of $78,333, would confirm that Bitcoin is successfully staying above a key resistance level.
Recent trading activity is giving us a clearer picture of where Bitcoin might be headed this week. If Bitcoin stays more than 3% above its opening price on Monday by Wednesday, historical data suggests there’s an 86% chance it will finish the week higher. If the increase exceeds 5% by Wednesday, that probability jumps to 91.4%.
If the price drops below $74,480, especially with a 2% decrease from Monday’s opening, it could indicate the recent price increase wasn’t a genuine trend. If losses continue and exceed 2% by Wednesday, historical data suggests there’s a very high probability (around 80%) the week will end with overall losses, and this pattern has been consistent in similar situations.
Bitcoin recently hit $69,861, almost reaching a previous low of $70,567, completing a full price range for the week. Historically, price movements like this often lead to a recovery, with the rest of the week typically showing gains about 82% of the time. According to Sherlockwhale, these price points create a pattern that helps understand how the price is behaving this week.
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2026-04-21 14:11