What to know:
- Multiple onchain and derivatives indicators suggest bitcoin probably established a cycle low during February’s sharp selloff toward $60,000.
- Realized cap has stabilized near $1.08 trillion after heavy wealth destruction, mirroring accumulation patterns seen during previous bear-market bottoms.
- Bitcoin perpetual funding rates remained deeply negative for months, a historically reliable signal of capitulation and market exhaustion.
Bitcoin investors are now trying to figure out if the price has hit its lowest point. The cryptocurrency briefly dropped to around $60,000 in early February, and many are wondering if that was the bottom.
It’s impossible to say for sure, but several factors related to Bitcoin’s blockchain data and trading activity suggest the recent price drop might be over, particularly now that Bitcoin has risen back above $77,000.
Realized Cap is a way to measure the total value of Bitcoin by looking at the price each coin was last traded at on the blockchain. Unlike typical market capitalization, which uses the current price, Realized Cap shows the average price investors originally paid for their Bitcoin. It’s helpful for understanding how money is flowing in and out of the Bitcoin network.
The total value of all cryptocurrencies reached nearly $1.12 trillion before dropping to around $1.08 trillion as Bitcoin’s price fell over 50% from its peak last October. This represents a substantial loss of value, among the biggest ever recorded. Fortunately, the total value now appears to be leveling off and establishing a support level, mirroring what happened during the lowest points of the 2022 crypto market downturn.
As a crypto investor, I’ve been looking at the RHODL Ratio, and it’s giving me some interesting signals. Basically, it compares how much crypto is being held by people who’ve been in the game for a while – six months to two years – versus the newer folks who just jumped in recently, like within the last few months. Right now, it’s over 5, which is a really high number – actually the third highest we’ve ever seen. It suggests long-term holders are accumulating and not selling, which can be a bullish sign.
We only saw higher readings twice before: at the lows of the 2015 and 2022 market cycles. This indicates that people who’ve held onto their coins for a long time still control most of the available supply. In fact, these long-term holders have increased their supply by over 400,000 BTC since February.
From February to May, the funding rates for perpetual futures—the fees paid between buyers and sellers to ensure the futures price stays close to the current market price—stayed negative for an unusually long time.
In my research, I’ve consistently observed that periods of prolonged negative fund flows usually signal very strong pessimism among investors, and often indicate that many traders are already betting against the market. This creates a situation where the selling eventually runs out of steam, frequently marking a turning point and the beginning of a market recovery.
We’ve seen similar patterns before, like during the Silicon Valley Bank issues in March 2023, the unwinding of yen carry trades in August 2024, and the market reaction to tariffs in April 2025. Each of these events coincided with significant drops in Bitcoin’s price.
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2026-05-20 14:59