Bitcoin’s Biggest Bull Signal Since 2025? Peter Brandt Agrees with COT Shift

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Peter Brandt Agrees: This COT Shift Could Be <a href="https://tech-oracle.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a>’s Biggest Bull Signal Since 2025

Peter Brandt has pointed out an unusual shift in the Commitments of Traders data for Bitcoin futures. According to McClellan, large speculators rapidly increased their net long positions. This change raises the question: could a price increase be on the way?

Peter Brandt started things off with a critical chart posted on X this week, highlighting Bitcoin’s consistent inability to surpass a downward-trending resistance level. But then, an unexpected turn of events occurred.

He walked it back. Not the chart, exactly. But the conclusion.

I saw a post from Peter Brandt on X where he basically said the Commitment of Traders data is signaling an immediate price increase. It was a really quick statement – just that, really. It’s interesting because he’d just been pointing out resistance levels on a Bitcoin chart, which suggested a potential downturn, but now he’s suddenly bullish based on this COT data. A pretty quick turnaround in perspective!

What McClellan’s Chart Actually Showed

McClellan, who runs the website mcoscillator.com, recently published a chart showing Bitcoin futures prices alongside data on trader positioning from the CFTC. The chart covers a period from late 2021 to mid-2026, displaying price on a logarithmic scale (black line) and the net position of non-commercial traders (red line).

By the end of 2025, the indicator had fallen significantly. Traders who weren’t professionals were mostly betting that the price would go down, and this matched the actual drop in Bitcoin’s value at the time.

Currently, unlike late 2025, a large number of individual traders are betting that the price of B!+c0in futures will go up. Normally, experienced businesses are the most reliable indicators in futures markets. However, with these particular futures, very few businesses qualify, so individual traders are acting as the primary source of informed trading.

— Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc)

Source: McClellanOsc

The market has recently seen a significant shift in trader positioning. According to McClellan’s analysis on X, traders have quickly moved from betting against the market (net short) to betting on it (net long) with noticeable speed and determination. This rapid change is important, as the *pace* of positioning can be just as telling as the direction of the shift.

Bitcoin markets react strongly to this because of how they’re built. Normally, in markets for things like oil, the companies that actually produce the commodity are the most informed traders. Bitcoin doesn’t have many of those types of players. While miners do exist, they don’t protect themselves against price drops in the same way oil companies do. As a result, large investment firms and hedge funds end up being the main players making informed trading decisions.

The Disconnect Brandt Couldn’t Ignore

What’s unusual is *when* Brandt shared this. He’d just posted his own Bitcoin chart a few hours before, using a baseball analogy to illustrate Bitcoin’s repeated failures to break through a certain price level – essentially asking how many times it would fail before it dropped. The chart highlighted two downward trends, each showing three attempts to move higher that were unsuccessful. It signaled a likely price decrease and was a very clear pattern.

McClellan pointed out that chart and contrasted it with Commitment of Traders (COT) data. He believes current trader positioning differs from the past when Brandt identified a bearish pattern. Essentially, the disagreement comes down to whether price trends or trader behavior are more important indicators.

Brandt agreed. Publicly. On the same thread.

Market conditions can be confusing, where technical analysis suggests a price decrease, but investor behavior indicates a potential increase. These opposing forces create uncertainty, and ultimately, price movement will determine the outcome. Currently, Bitcoin is trending downward within a defined range, even though a large number of futures traders are betting on its price going up.

Recent data on Bitcoin futures shows that the price increase in April was mainly fueled by demand for perpetual futures contracts, while actual Bitcoin purchases were lower. This imbalance hasn’t been corrected yet, and continues to be a notable factor in the market.

Three Strikes, But the Scoreboard Changed

Commitment of Traders reports, released every Tuesday, provide a weekly look at how large, informed traders were positioned in the market. It’s important to remember these reports don’t forecast future price movements, but rather show positioning before price changes occur.

McClellan’s indicator signaled a shift before the price itself actually changed, and that was his main point. While Brandt’s chart displays price movements, McClellan’s chart reveals the underlying buying and selling pressure.

Brandt didn’t dismiss his original technical analysis when he agreed with the COT data. He simply recognized another important factor to consider. The chart still shows a bearish pattern, but now the situation is more complex.

Brandt has changed his predictions about Bitcoin in the past. He once predicted a significant price drop, illustrated with a ‘banana peel bottom’ scenario for late 2025, but also publicly believed in Bitcoin’s long-term potential to reach $200,000. He’s able to hold both of these seemingly opposing views at the same time, which is something many traders don’t understand.

The future of the current buy signal hinges on how the price behaves around the existing resistance level. Traders are currently holding long positions, as observed by Brandt.

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2026-05-05 06:45