Bitcoin’s Bull or Bear? The Great Crypto Conundrum Unveiled! 🚀💀

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In the grand parlour of financial prognostications, some of the shrewdest analysts, notably the indomitable Peter Brandt, have taken to the stage with their rather gloomy predictions suggesting that Bitcoin‘s descent may have only just begun. One might almost hear the faint strains of a clarinet accompanying this symphony of doom, as he forecasts a possible plummet all the way down to a modest $25,000, citing the infamous break in a parabolic structure that previously led to an unseemly 80% nosedive. Yes, dear reader, it appears that crypto’s version of a rollercoaster is heading for perhaps its lowest rung yet.

“BTC’s bull cycles have undergone parabolic advances. The violation of previous parabolas have all declined <80%. The current parabolic advance has been violated.”

As December of the year 2025 limps to its close, the plot thickens with rumours that the crypto realm might face chaos should Bitcoin’s treasuries-think Strategy and their ilk-be ousted from the august MSCI index or if the Yen carry trade unwinds in a manner less graceful than a ballet. The fateful 15th of January looms large, promising either calamity or salvation, depending on whom you ask. Meanwhile, some optimists dare to whisper of a bullish end to the year and perhaps even a shiny new record high in 2026, like a phoenix waiting to burn itself again.

Grayscale’s bullish BTC outlook

On the brighter side, veteran investors including the venerable Grayscale hold an optimistic view, confidently predicting that Bitcoin might soar past $126,000 in the coming year-a veritable moonshot! Unlike the naysayers, Grayscale dismisses the idea of a parabolic cycle being the sole driver, instead attributing recent gains to increased institutional interest-a trend more suited for a Victorian romance than a crypto debate.

They argue that Bitcoin seems to have found its footing, citing options positioning and the discounted mNAVs of treasury firms as signs that the bottom has been reached. It’s almost enough to make one believe in fairy tales, as they boldly declare: “Although the outlook is uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle thesis will prove to be incorrect and that Bitcoin’s price will potentially make new highs next year.”

Meanwhile, the venerable Standard Chartered has dropped its end-of-2025 forecast from a lofty $200,000 to a more modest $100,000, demonstrating that even the most confident among us are not immune to the caprices of the crypto universe. CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju sums up the general consensus: “Many people are asking ‘what’s next,’ but in neutral and uncertain situations like this, I believe the right approach is to maintain your own conviction, hold your existing position, and wait.” – which, if you think about it, is the investment equivalent of ‘keep calm and carry on.’

LTH sell-off deepens

In the meantime, the demand-or lack thereof-becomes ever more perplexing. Despite ETFs recording a healthy $287 million in net inflows last week, the long-term holders (LTHs), those stalwart collectors of Bitcoin like antique dealers at an auction, have plunged into a frenzy of sell-off, totaling a staggering 279,000 BTC daily, worth over $25 billion. One might suspect that these venerable holders are more than just a tad anxious-perhaps they’ve already seen the final curtain?

In the short term, however, certain price levels-specifically the $87k and $95k/96k zones-appear to serve as magnetic poles, drawing liquidity and possibly, a resurgence of the mercurial price action. Time will tell if these levels serve as the stage for a comeback or the final curtain.

Final Thoughts

  • Brandt foresees a grim path to $25k, lamenting the breach of historical parabolic laws-bring out the black hats and the dark glasses, it’s a crypto apocalypse.
  • Conversely, Grayscale is convinced that institutional adoption, despite its current fragility, could propel Bitcoin to a glorious new all-time high in the not-so-distant future, perhaps even next year.

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2025-12-15 13:26