Bitcoin’s Chaotic Dance: Powell’s Plot or Tariff Trap?

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Key Takeaways

Bitcoin teeters on the brink of madness, liquidity clustered like nosy neighbors around $123k and $112k–$115k, as macro catalysts and fiscal easing collide in a farce worthy of a carnival. 😏

Just as markets huddle in anticipation of a Fed pivot, tariff relief crashes the party like an uninvited guest. Coincidence? Or a cunning scheme? Either way, Bitcoin [BTC] is primed for theatrics—it either bursts forth in glory or slinks back to the $112k-$115k den to lick its wounds and test the mob’s resolve. 😂

With liquidity plotting on both sides, the stage is set for a comedic tragedy. Bitcoin’s next impulsive leap will be sparked by whichever zone crumbles first, all while macro tempests swirl back in, whispering sweet nothings of doom. 😈

Markets brace for Powell

July ends with macro risk cranked to eleven. Fed Chair Powell steps up for the FOMC charade with his latest economic ramblings, and everyone’s glued to inflation like it’s the latest scandal. Why? Because June CPI hit 2.7% YoY, a four-month peak and the first real 0.3% MoM spike this year—talk about breaking the calm with a sledgehammer! 😠

What’s worse, it’s two months in a row of upticks, shattering the previous snoozefest of -0.2% MoM averages. So much for the disinflation daydream; now inflation’s stickier than gum on a shoe, leaving everyone wondering if the Fed can play nice and dovish in the second half. Ha! As if. 😉

The CME FedWatch Tool? Oh, it’s all in on a ‘hold’ for the July 30th FOMC—97.4% chance rates stay glued at 425-450 bps, with a measly 2.6% betting on a 25 bps cut. No one’s holding their breath for easing here. Naturally, the question looms: is Bitcoin’s upward stumble just because the Fed’s being a tightwad on liquidity? Priceless. 😏

Bitcoin caught between policy and positioning

Without a Fed pivot to save the day, Bitcoin’s big break hinges on fiscal fireworks, specifically the tariff retreat. And lo, it timing perfectly with the FOMC window—like a plot from a absurd novel. Take June’s tariff rollback drama: U.S. ditches China import duties, sneaking in fiscal easing while the Fed plays hard to get. 😜

Traders caught wind faster than gossip in a small town. Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index flipped positive and sustainable from mid-April, hitting a smug 0.105 in early June right when those tariff tales broke. What a coincidence! 🙄

The price antics didn’t disappoint. Bitcoin churned out three green months straight, holding $100k like a fortress and blasting to $123k by mid-July for an 11.31% monthly win. Structurally, it’s a setup screaming for a squeeze—sticky CPI keeping rates high, fiscal fluff propping up the bid, and $9.5 billion in shorts huddled at $123k, just begging for Bitcoin to mock them with a rocket ride. Mwahahaha! 🚀

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2025-07-28 13:14