What to know:
Record volumes of bullish S&P 500 call options signal a surge in speculative risk-taking on Wall Street, offering bullish cues to crypto, as the two are positively correlated. A spectacle of greed, where investors bet on the moon while the Fed dances on a tightrope.
Trump says ceasefire still holds after fighting between the U.S. and Iran flares (Reuters): U.S. and Iran clashed in the Gulf and the UAE came under renewed attack, but Trump said a ceasefire was still holding despite the attacks, which dented hopes for a swift end to the war. A tale of diplomacy where words are as hollow as a politician’s promise.
U.S. stocks rise as tech outlook offsets war worries: market wrap. (Bloomberg): A rally in technology stocks is lifting U.S. index futures as investors wait for the monthly jobs report. Oil fluctuated. Benchmarks in Europe and Asia fell. Brent moved to just above $100 a barrel. The dollar headed for a second straight week of losses. A rollercoaster of chaos, where the only constant is uncertainty.
Federal court rules against new global tariffs Trump imposed after loss at the Supreme Court (AP): A federal court ruled against the new global tariffs that Trump imposed after a stinging loss at the Supreme Court. The Court of International Trade in New York ruling found the 10% global tariffs were illegal after small businesses sued. A legal tangle as intricate as a spider’s web, with small businesses as the unwitting heroes.
Today’s signal
The chart by coinglass tracks the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which measures the price difference between bitcoin traded on Coinbase, a proxy for U.S. institutional and spot demand, and offshore exchanges such as Binance. Green readings indicate BTC is trading at a premium on Coinbase, signaling stronger demand from U.S.-based investors.
The premium has flipped into a discount this week just as bitcoin looked to establish a foothold above $80,000. Interestingly, the rally has stalled. A tale of false hope, where the market teases with a glimpse of glory before retreating into the shadows.
Historically, bull runs have coincided with persistent positive readings in the index. The next move higher, therefore, warrants a return of the premium. A return as elusive as a mirage in the desert, but one that investors cling to with desperate hope.
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2026-05-08 14:40