Bitcoin’s LTH Cohort: Buying More, Selling at a Loss?!

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In a stunning turn of events, Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTH) have become the financial equivalent of a couch potato-sticking to their coins like glue, but with less ambition. Axel Adler Jr. reports that LTH Realized Supply has ballooned from 5.26 million BTC in January 2026 to a whopping 8.32 million as of April 16. Who needs liquidity when you can have a cozy, inactive stash?

This metric, which tracks BTC that’s been idle for 155 days, is basically the crypto world’s version of “I haven’t touched this since 2020.” Growth? Mostly from coins that finally matured into LTH status-because nothing says “I’m patient” like waiting three months to do nothing.

Bitcoin’s LTH Cohort Balloons

Over the past year, the LTH supply surged from 4.16 million to 8.32 million BTC. It’s like watching a balloon fill with air, but instead of helium, it’s just… vibes. While this suggests fewer coins are floating around, Adler warns that a drop in LTH Realized Supply would mean old coins are back in circulation-like a party guest who never left.

Remember 2022? The LTH count hit 15.31 million BTC before people finally spent their coins. Now, it’s like the crypto version of a “I’ll think about it later” email.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s LTH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has dipped below 1.0, currently at 0.979. Long-term holders are spending coins at a loss, because nothing says “I’m rich” like losing money on purpose. This isn’t a new trend-since February 2026, it’s been a rollercoaster, with a low of 0.798 in March. But hey, at least it’s not 2018!

Adler explains that SOPR only measures the profit of spent LTH coins, not the whole crew. It’s like saying “I’m not sad” while crying into a pillow. The current dip? “Local stress,” he says, not “capitulation.” Because nothing says “I’m confident” like a 0.979 SOPR.

Neutral-Cautious Crossroads

Combined metrics paint a picture of “neutral-cautious,” which is just a fancy way of saying “we’re all just waiting for the other shoe to drop.” LTH Realized Supply growth is a structural plus, but SOPR’s dip? Short-term pressure, like a toddler having a tantrum at a buffet.

A quick SOPR rebound above 1.0 with Realized Supply gains would mean “fleeting episode.” But if SOPR stays below 1.0 and Realized Supply plummets? That’s a bearish regime change. Or, as I like to call it, “the crypto version of a midlife crisis.”

Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index (BCMI) has dropped into “historic undervaluation zone,” which is just a fancy way of saying “buy the dip!” But the 90-day moving average is still declining, because nothing says “I’m bullish” like a downward trend.

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2026-04-18 15:19