Bitcoin’s Quiet Mid-Cycle Odyssey: A Tolstoyan Take

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  • In a season that once teased despair, the long-term holders of Bitcoin have stirred from their careful silence and now command about 14.3 million BTC, a display of renewed gathering after many months of diminution.
  • The 200-day moving average-an unwelcome, stern judge-slips with a sharp breath, a sign of strain that does not yet portend the fall of all markets, only a tremor before the storm that may never come.
  • Speculators fix their gaze on the spaces between roughly 65,000 and 67,000 dollars, where liquidity lingers like a stubborn bread crumb and volatility flirts with the margins of the candle.

Bitcoin’s long-term holders are back in accumulation mode. On-chain data reveals they now control 14.3 million BTC after months of distribution.

Bitfinex analysis shows this shift could signal a mid-cycle reset rather than a final market top. The pattern mirrors previous bull cycles where similar accumulation preceded major price movements.

Long-Term Holder Supply Turns Upward

Bitfinex speaks of a reversal in the decline of the long-term holder supply, those rare souls who keep coins unmoved for over 155 days. Their patience, like that of noblemen waiting for harvest to ripen, now bears fruit in the ledger’s rows.

Bitcoin long term holder supply has turned up after months of distribution, now back near 14.3M BTC.

In past cycles fresh highs in LTH supply led by roughly 3-4 months.

If this build up continues, it supports the view that this is a mid cycle reset, not a final top.

– Bitfinex (@bitfinex)

The supply bottomed in December 2025 before climbing again. This reversal marks a significant shift in investor behavior during current market volatility.

Historical data from past cycles offers insight into what comes next. Long-term holder supply increases typically led Bitcoin price peaks by three to four months. If this pattern holds, the current accumulation phase suggests room for further upside.

The data counters fears of a prolonged bear market.

200-Day Moving Average Flashes Warning

CryptoRank highlights a concerning technical signal. Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average is deteriorating at the fastest pace since 2022.

This momentum collapse, like a winter in which the hearth goes cold, has often appeared during times of real market strain. It has not been the hallmark of healthy pullbacks in earlier cycles.

However, the current environment does differ from 2022’s bear winter. Then, the whole economy slid into a chasm; today, the Nasdaq looks cautious but not ready to surrender to the night. Bitcoin shows bear‑market weakness while the broader risk mood merely cools its heels.

This places traders in an uneasy middle ground. The asset lacks the stoutness to absorb shocks, yet the market does not burn down around it. Fading momentum and thin participation leave open the possibility of sharp moves in either direction. The artifact remains vulnerable even amidst calmer skies in other markets.

Trading Levels and Market Structure

Trader Lennaert Snyder identifies the principal liquidity zones for BTC’s retracement.

After seizing liquidity, Bitcoin drifted toward the recent lows. The trend remains down on higher timeframes, though an important bastion of support still stands.

continues the retracement.

After grabbing liquidity, Bitcoin continued the dump towards the lows.

The short mentioned yesterday is playing out nicely, and I’m also interested in catching the continuation trade if we get a nice retest today.

For continuation shorts, I’m…

– Lennaert Snyder (@LennaertSnyder)

Short positions target liquidity pools around 67,810 and 68,560 dollars. These zones could trigger a break in market structure after retests. The first scenario eyes a move toward 65,200, the prior range low with plenty of liquidity waiting like a crowd at a theater door.

For long positions, watchers focus on the support below 65,200. Serious liquidity mitigation would be required for a credible reversal. The bias remains bearish despite the scaffolding of key supports.

Current Bitcoin Price Action and Outlook

Bitcoin trades at 67,474.42 dollars according to CoinGecko data. The 24-hour volume stands at 47.6 billion, while the price has slipped 2.07% in a day and 11.32% over the week.

The signals weave a complex tapestry. Long-term holders accumulate, while technical signs warn. The analysis hints at a mid-cycle consolidation, aligning with the three-to-four month lag observed before price peaks in prior cycles.

Market participants face turbulence in the short term, yet the wider risk environment affords room for stabilization. Perhaps the macro factors will favor, perhaps not. The present phase tests whether Bitcoin can sustain support while gathering strength for another ascent, or at least a dramatic entrance onto the stage of public credulity.

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2026-02-11 21:16