Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster: Why It’s Heading for a Cozy $120K-$130K Nest

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What to know:

  • BTC’s dealer gamma profile suggests a respectable little slumber on the price front. 💤
  • ETH? Still practicing yoga in an expanding triangle. 🧘‍♂️
  • SOL flaunts a bull breakout, like a show-off at a party. 💪
  • XRP flips bullish: guess it found a new friend! 😊

This is a daily analysis of top tokens with CME futures by our resident sage, CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

Bitcoin: Looks north; Dealer gamma, Vol and DXY in focus

Ah, Bitcoin, that mischievous rascal, just tossed its hat over the fence, soaring past $123,000 early Monday, strutting towards that enticing $140,000 mark hinted at by BlackRock’s recent breakout. 🎩

And boy, you could almost feel the optimism in the air! With a pro-crypto President planting the seeds for ultra-low interest rates amidst a fiscal feast and stock market jubilation, it’s like the heavens have aligned for Bitcoin. Talk about a cosmic party! 🎊

No hints of the party poopers—popular indicators like the RSI and MACD are holding the line, standing stacked like soldiers in a bullish formation, ready for action. 🚀

Keep your eyes peeled for a breakout in the cumulative open interest in BTC perpetual futures; that would be the cherry on this optimistic pie. 🥧

As things stand, it appears prices are gunning for that $130,000 milestone, the pinnacle established by the wise sages of April and June, and the epic showdown on May 22. But don’t get too cozy; we might just find ourselves in a languid consolidation dance between $120,000 and $130,000. Here’s why: 🎭

Market makers are long gamma

According to the savvy folks at Amberdata, options market makers are all in on the long gamma game between $120,000 and $130,000. They’ll be playing the role of the market’s friendly neighborhood buy-low-sell-high brigade, trying to swoop in and balance their play—keeping the price on a tight leash. 🎣

This friendly game probably kept the prices tethered like a hound on a leash when they were frolicking around the $108,000-$110,000 range earlier this month. 🐕

DVOL upswing

Now, Bitcoin’s thrill ride from $70,000 to $122,000 has been a curious affair. In a nifty Wall Street-like twist, the correlation between the spot price and Deribit’s DVOL—our turbulence meter—has backed off like a bashful wallflower. 💃

But wait! DVOL seems to be stirring from its slumber around 36% since late June. If MACD gives us a sly wink as well, it’s a signal for potential price shenanigans. 🎢

DXY ends downtrend

The dollar index, feeling feisty, has jumped about 17% to 97.00 this month, endearing itself to the lovers of greenbacks. But this might act as a wet blanket for BTC and gold, as those dollar-denominated assets could see their wildest dreams cap-sized. 💸

It might feel like the market makers are playing tug-of-war, pulling BTC this way and that as they maintain their positions. 🎭

  • Resistance: $130,000, $140,000, $146,000.
  • Support: $118,800, $116,650, $112,000.

    • ETH: Still stuck in an expanding triangle

    Here we find ETH, sporting a 22% uptick month-to-date, but still caught in its expanding channel like a fly in a spider’s web. 🕷️

    With prices jostling against the upper trendline, the break is looking about as likely as a cat deciding to take a bath. 🐱🚿

    • AI’s take: It’s overbought, so momentum’s feeling a bit stretched, much like a pair of pants after Thanksgiving dinner. 🥴
    • Resistance: $3,067, $3,500, $3,570, $4,000.
    • Support: $2,905, $2,880, $2,739, $2,600.

    SOL: Dual breakout reinforced

    Ah, SOL, the confident dancer of the crypto ball, showing off a dual bullish breakout with flair, bouncing back after a weekend hiccup as if to say, “Not today, price dip!” 💃😂

    • AI’s take: The quick recovery after a minor dip is like a slice of good fortune. The signals seem genuine, a far cry from those pesky fakeouts. 🍀
    • Resistance: $180, $190, $200.
    • Support: $150, $145, $125.

    XRP: MACD flips bullish

    And here you have XRP, with its MACD histogram giving us that ooh-la-la signal by crossing above zero. It’s like watching a shy kid finally sign up for dance class! 🕺

    Sentiment is swirling strong, flashing bullish like a neon sign, possibly paving the way for a breakout above $3. Just keep an eye out for those volatility bumpers lurking about! ⚠️

    • AI’s take: If XRP takes a cue from BTC’s previous performance, we might be in for a wild ride upwards! 🎢
    • Resistance: $3.00, $3.40
    • Support: $2.20, $1.90, $1.60.

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    2025-07-14 12:34