Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, a key indicator, recently rose above $61,000. Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, pointed this out on May 30th, following a similar observation in early May when the indicator first surpassed $60,000.
The indicator has increased by about $1,000 in less than a month, suggesting that long-term investors are consistently buying at these prices.
A Rising Long-Term Floor
The 200-week moving average calculates the average closing price of Bitcoin over almost four years, creating a smoothed-out trend line. Historically, this line has acted as a price floor during Bitcoin’s major market lows. When the price crosses important levels on this chart, it often attracts the attention of long-term Bitcoin investors who are focused on the overall trend.
#bitcoin 200wma passed $61k
— Adam Back (@adam3us) May 30, 2026
As of today, Bitcoin’s price is considerably higher than this point. It’s currently much further above its 200-week moving average, a difference first noted in early May.
During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin briefly dropped below a key support level before recovering quickly. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a pattern of consistently making higher highs and lows throughout its price cycles.
Munger’s Argument, Applied to Bitcoin
In a later post, Back referenced a comment made by the late Charlie Munger, a well-known American billionaire investor.
As an analyst, I’ve always found Charlie Munger’s point about investment strategy particularly insightful. He believed that consistently buying great stocks when their 200-week moving average is hit would, over the long term, significantly outperform the S&P 500. However, he also recognized the real challenge: very few investors actually possess the self-control to stick to such a disciplined approach.
Back said Munger made the comment, but also pointed out a key detail. He explained that both Munger and Buffett never understood bitcoin, much like they initially dismissed the internet. Back believes this happened because they both prefer investing in traditional, tangible businesses.
The idea is that Bitcoin investors who are patient, like Charlie Munger, and buy when the price hits lows during market dips could potentially earn significantly higher returns over the long term.
This indicator tends to increase slowly over time, and historically, buying Bitcoin when it’s near this level has proven to be a good value compared to its overall long-term performance.
Back has previously argued this point, consistently recommending a steady, long-term investment approach instead of frequent buying and selling.
If the 200-week moving average continues to rise will depend on whether buying from both large institutions and individual investors remains stronger than selling. Current blockchain data suggests this strong buying interest is still present.
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2026-05-31 20:16