Is the BTC cycle dead? Why analysts predict $150K Bitcoin by 2026

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For over a decade, Bitcoin‘s [BTC] price was led by its relentless four-year halving cycle, a mystical dance of market forces that ignited bull runs in 2013, 2017, and 2021 – each followed, of course, by the inevitable crash. Ah, the cycle of hope, fear, and drama!

But, hold your horses – institutional finance is waving its hands, signaling that this once reliable rhythm might be about to die a quiet death. 🕊️

Is now the end of a four-year BTC cycle?

Enter Bernstein, the global research giant, who boldly declares that the traditional crypto cycle is, well, as good as dead. “The end of an era!” they cry. What killed it? A new structural demand, driven by those nifty Spot Bitcoin ETFs and an unprecedented wave of institutional money. It’s no longer your run-of-the-mill retail traders caught up in the halving-induced hysteria.

And so, Bernstein forecasts an “elongated bull market,” where Bitcoin will calmly stroll its way to a $150,000 price tag by 2026. Smooth, no?

Even after the recent market correction (which, by the way, Bernstein insists was merely a “shallow consolidation” – isn’t everything shallow in 2025?), the firm is sticking to its guns. We’re looking at a new breed of Bitcoin – one that’s no longer all about the “scarcity narrative” but defined by the ever-growing, slow but steady demand from Wall Street big shots. 💼

What role is BTC ETF playing in this shift?

And here’s the smoking gun: the Spot Bitcoin ETF. This, dear reader, is where the magic happens. When the market dropped by 30%, ETF outflows stayed under 5%. This means that the new institutional holders aren’t panicking like the retail crowd but are, instead, playing a long-term game. They’re looking at Bitcoin as a real asset, not a gamble.

So Bernstein, with all the confidence in the world, has decided to extend its time horizon, projecting Bitcoin will hit $150,000 by 2026, $200,000 by 2027, and $1 million by 2033. Forget the old four-year cycle. This is a whole new ball game. 🏀

What’s more?

Now, let’s throw in a bit of reality. AMBCrypto recently dropped some analysis that’s like a cold splash of water to Bernstein’s warm, institutional dreams. With extreme volatility, liquidity thinner than your patience on a Monday, and a series of lower highs, the market’s nerves are fraying. The price dipped to $90,179.65 after a 1.7% drop, and it’s all starting to feel like one of those “gently simmering” crises.

On-chain metrics reveal that long-term holders are selling at a loss. Meanwhile, $500 million in leverage liquidations and a sharp fall in Open Interest could suggest that the market’s current volatility is not some innocent accident. Could this be the work of the infamous “smart money” manipulating the market, like a puppeteer pulling strings? 🤡

It’s a curious situation. Investors now face a burning question: Will institutional demand, as Bernstein promises, save the day, or is this whole thing just a well-constructed bear trap set by the big players to flush out the weak hands? 🐻

Final Thoughts

  • Bernstein’s “elongated bull cycle” vision suggests Bitcoin may climb steadily, no more wild spikes and crashes.
  • The ETF outflows during the 30% correction suggest the rise of institutional holders who are in it for the long haul, not the short term excitement.

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2025-12-09 17:28