Mark Twain’s Take on BofA’s Bullish S&P 500 Forecast and the Looming Pullback

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Well, now, if you’ve ever seen a cat walk on a hot tin roof, you’ve got a pretty good idea of how the stock market’s been acting lately. Bank of America (BofA) is out there, trying to predict the next move of the S&P 500, which, as we all know, is about as predictable as a politician’s promise. 🐱‍👤

In a recent chat with CNBC, Paul Ciana, the head of fixed income, currency, commodity, and equity technical research at BofA, reckons the S&P 500 is about to take a little jaunt up the hill. He says, “Yes, the S&P 500 is getting a tad overbought, and we’re spotting a few signs of tactical weakness. But hey, that’s just the market’s way of saying, ‘Hold my beer, I’m about to do something crazy.’” 🍺

“We’re harkening back to May, when we first tipped our hats to a bullish summer. We saw a lovely [inverse] head and shoulders bottom on the daily chart of the S&P 500. According to the technical textbooks, that’s a sign of good things to come, measuring up to about 6,625. So, we’re looking for a rally into the 6,500 range this summer, maybe with a bit of extra frosting on the cake.” 🎂

But don’t get too comfy, folks. Ciana warns that the S&P 500’s climb won’t be a straight shot to the moon. He predicts a bit of a correction once it hits his target, based on some fancy technical analysis rules. “In the world of technicals, we like to say that the rule of alternation applies to corrections. There are a lot of parallels between 2025 and 2018. In 2018, we had a shallow correction in the first half, a big rally to all-time highs, and a deep correction at year-end. So, the rule of alternation suggests we might see a rally to new all-time highs, followed by a mean reversion toward year-end. If we hit 6,500 or 6,600, we might come back down to 6,200 by the end of the year.” 📉

Ciana also points out that the S&P 500 had a deep pullback earlier this year, and a modest correction could be on the horizon in the coming months. It’s like the market’s doing a little dance, two steps forward, one step back. 🕺

As of Monday’s close, the S&P 500 is trading at 6,268. So, keep your eyes peeled and your wallets ready, because the market’s about to put on a show. 🎪

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2025-07-15 16:02