Monero Dip Buyers Fight Bear Flag as Price Eyes $135

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Monero Price Breakdown Begins? Dip Buyers Now Fight <a href="https://jpykr.com/xmr-usd/">XMR</a>’s Drop to $135

Since mid-January, the price of Monero has been struggling, even though some other cryptocurrencies are starting to recover. After a significant drop in late January, the price of XMR briefly stabilized around $276 on February 6 and has seen a small increase since then.

However, Monero’s recent gains seem unstable. Technical indicators, like chart patterns and limited buying activity during price drops, along with uncertain market sentiment, hint that another significant price decrease is possible.

Bear Flag Breakdown and Weak Dip Buying Put XMR Under Pressure

Since mid-January, Monero’s price has been moving downwards in a pattern that suggests further declines are likely. This pattern, called a bearish pole-and-flag, typically appears after a significant price drop – which happened with Monero around February 6th – and often indicates the downtrend will continue.

XMR’s price dropped over 60% from its highest point in January, then stabilized and showed a small upward trend, forming a pattern. However, starting February 12th, the price fell below the lower limit of this pattern, suggesting a likely further decline. This confirms a negative trend unless buyers can quickly drive the price back up within the pattern.

Recent market data suggests some investors are still stepping in to buy when prices fall, but this activity isn’t very strong. The Money Flow Index (MFI) is a helpful tool for gauging this ‘dip-buying’ – it combines price and trading volume to show how much buying pressure there really is.

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Since the beginning of February, Monero’s Money Flow Index (MFI) has been gradually increasing, even though the price of XMR has remained flat or decreased. This indicates that some investors are taking advantage of price drops to buy. However, the MFI hasn’t shown enough strength to break past a key resistance level or establish a clear upward trend, suggesting that while there is buying activity, it isn’t yet strong enough to change the overall downward trend.

Data on cryptocurrency exchange activity backs up this idea. After a few days of small amounts of Monero entering exchanges, February 12th saw approximately $372,000 worth of XMR leave. This drop in the amount of Monero held on exchanges often suggests increased demand and potential price increases.

This shows that some are still buying. In simple terms, dip buyers are active, but only feebly.

Rising Social Interest Fails to Offset Falling Positive Sentiment

Social data shows another important weakness in Monero’s current setup.

Recently, Monero has been getting more attention online. Social dominance is a way to measure how much a cryptocurrency is being discussed compared to others, and an increase suggests growing public interest in Monero.

From February 11th to 12th, online discussion about Monero increased from about 0.046% to 0.066%. This suggests growing interest in Monero after a recent period of declining attention. In the past, similar increases in online activity have sometimes been followed by small, temporary increases in Monero’s price.

Looking at past trends, we’ve seen a connection between increased social media attention and price jumps for Monero. For instance, on January 12th, when social buzz spiked to around 0.92%, the price went up 25% in just two days. A similar thing happened on January 18th. However, the recent increase in social media activity is much less pronounced than it was during those earlier peaks, remaining significantly lower than both the high point in February and the larger spikes seen in January.

Perhaps even more significantly, people are expressing less positive feelings about Monero. We measure this by tracking how often discussions about Monero are optimistic versus neutral or negative. Since February 9th, the percentage of positive conversations has dropped dramatically – from around 27% to just 7%, a decrease of 74%. This represents a substantial negative shift.

Historically, when optimism around Monero was high (above 100), the price usually went up. Now, even though more people are discussing Monero, overall sentiment is falling sharply. This indicates that conversations aren’t positive – instead, they’re fueled by worry, guessing, and the possibility of further price drops. This negative feeling makes it difficult for any increase in Monero’s price to last.

Monero Price Levels That Determine the Next Leg

Right now, the price of XMR is more influenced by its technical performance and how much people actually want to buy it, rather than just hype. If the price starts to rise, the biggest hurdle it will face is around $361, as we’ll cover later.

Okay, so right now, the price is right in the middle of what looks like a bearish pattern. If we can get above $361 and *stay* there, that would be a really good sign – it suggests buyers are stepping in and maybe this predicted drop won’t happen as quickly. But, and this is important, it doesn’t mean the bearish outlook is completely off the table. If we *don’t* break above $361, I’m still expecting the price to go down. Basically, that $361 level is key – it’s where things could change, but until it happens, I’m leaning towards the downside.

A slight positive sign comes from the Bull-Bear Power indicator, which measures the balance between buyers and sellers. It recently showed that selling pressure is decreasing, even though the price fell below an important support level. This indicates that sellers are starting to lose strength.

I’m watching Monero (XMR) closely, and if I continue to see people buying the dips while the selling pressure eases off, we might see a rally attempt back towards the $361 level. Basically, if buyers keep stepping in, we could avoid a further drop.

However, the price faces initial support around $308. It’s bounced back from this level a few times recently. If the price drops below $308, the next important support level is around $276, which was the lowest price reached in February.

If the price falls below both support levels, the predicted target is around $135. This price represents a potential drop equal to the previous decline and is a key area where the price has historically found support.

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2026-02-12 23:36