PlanB Reveals Shocking Prediction: Bitcoin’s Price Is Set to Soar Even Higher!

by

PlanB Says the <a href="https://investment-policy.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a> Top Isn’t In, and the S2F Model Agrees

According to PlanB, Bitcoin hasn’t reached its peak price yet. Their Stock-to-Flow model suggests the price will continue to rise, driven by Bitcoin’s limited supply and historical patterns following events called ‘halvings’.

PlanB says the Bitcoin top is not in, and his Stock-to-Flow model still supports that view. 

This announcement has brought renewed attention to three articles from 2019-2020 published on Medium. These articles originally developed the Stock-to-Flow model, which connects Bitcoin’s price to how limited its supply is.

They also shaped a long-running debate around halving cycles and Bitcoin price expectations.

Read also: 

Satoshi, Coinbase, BlackRock: Who Owns the Most Bitcoin in 2026?

PlanB’s S2F Model Tied Bitcoin Value to Scarcity

In March 2019, PlanB published his initial model in an article titled “Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity.” He argued that limited availability is the primary factor determining the value of assets like Bitcoin.

They compared Bitcoin with gold and silver using the stock-to-flow ratio.

The stock-to-flow ratio compares how much of a resource already exists to how much is created each year. Back then, around 17.5 million Bitcoins were in use, with about 0.7 million new ones being created annually. This put Bitcoin in a similar category to traditional precious metals like gold and silver.

PlanB analyzed Bitcoin’s price data from 2009 to early 2019, focusing on its relationship with a measure called the stock-to-flow ratio. Using a specific type of statistical analysis, they found a significant connection between Bitcoin’s increasing scarcity and its price, suggesting that as Bitcoin becomes more scarce, its value tends to increase.

They highlighted Bitcoin’s scheduled halvings as a key factor in its increasing scarcity. These halvings reduce the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, increasing its stock-to-flow ratio, and this formed the foundation of their long-term price predictions.

PlanB Defended the S2F Model Against EMH Criticism

In January 2020, PlanB released a paper called “Efficient Market Hypothesis and Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model.” This paper responded to a frequent critique of their earlier model.

Critics argued that Bitcoin halvings were known in advance and should already be priced in.

PlanB explained that Bitcoin’s price can still fluctuate wildly because investors tend to exaggerate potential dangers. These concerns include things like government restrictions, splits in the Bitcoin network, collapses in mining operations, fraud, and attacks that could control the network. These fears, according to PlanB, influence how much investors are willing to pay for Bitcoin.

They also looked at how Bitcoin performed compared to traditional investments like bonds, gold, and stocks using a risk-return chart. The results showed Bitcoin offered significantly higher returns than expected.

PlanB argued that classic models did not explain that gap well.

They also noted that futures and options markets didn’t experience a significant price increase before the halving event, which they believe suggests that fear was still influencing Bitcoin’s price.

That argument helped him defend the scarcity model against market efficiency claims.

Related Reading:  

Bitcoin Price Flatlines Near $70K as Institutional Flows Turn Negative

S2FX Expanded the Model Across Bitcoin Phases and Metals

In April 2020, PlanB published “Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model,” also called S2FX. 

This update went beyond just showing a Bitcoin price chart over time. It analyzed periods after Bitcoin ‘halving’ events as unique phases, each with its own characteristics in the market.

Researchers divided Bitcoin’s history into four phases: its initial demonstration, use for payments, a period resembling e-gold, and its development as a financial asset. Their model considered the stock-to-flow ratio and market value for each of these stages.

I remember PlanB expanding his analysis to include silver and gold, using a similar method to what he did with Bitcoin. He basically looked at how much of these metals exist versus how much is newly mined each year – what’s called the ‘stock-to-flow’ ratio – and compared that to their market value. He used a logarithmic scale for both, and the results showed a really strong correlation. It seemed like the model fit the historical data incredibly well.

The updated model predicted a higher value for Bitcoin between 2020 and 2024. PlanB projected a total market value of around $5.5 trillion. With approximately 19 million coins in circulation, this suggested a price of nearly $288,000 per Bitcoin.

Taken together, the three articles formed a clear progression. 

The first analyst proposed the idea of limited supply, the second supported it, and the third built upon it. This concept continues to be the basis for PlanB’s belief that Bitcoin hasn’t reached its peak price.

For their model, higher scarcity after halvings still leaves room for further upside.

Read More

2026-03-30 07:02