Solana’s 21% Drop: Bears vs Buyers – Who Will Win the Battle?

by

Bears or Buyers? Solana’s 21% Drop Setup Hits Heavy Defense

Solana (SOL) is currently trading at $91.22, and its price chart suggests a potential 21% drop to around $76.66. However, recent changes in trading activity and strong buying interest are providing some support against this potential decline.

Solana (SOL) is facing a critical moment. Its price chart looks weak, and there’s been a huge increase – over 350% – in the amount of SOL being withdrawn from exchanges since May 2nd. Plus, many investors bought SOL between $85 and $89, creating a key price range. This all means SOL holders are now facing a clear situation: the price will likely either rise significantly or fall, and the outcome will be determined soon.

Solana Price Forms a Double Top Backed by Volume Weakness and a Cost Basis Wall

Solana’s price chart suggests a potential reversal of its upward trend. The price reached similar highs twice – once in late March at $97.66 and again on May 12th at $98.35 – forming a pattern known as a ‘double top’. During the time between these peaks, the price didn’t move much, and trading activity decreased, which often signals that the price may start to fall as fewer buyers are convinced it will continue to rise.

If the price falls below $76.66, it could trigger a significant drop of around 21%. However, the decline won’t be a straight fall. Several price levels with a lot of existing buy orders are in the way, and these could temporarily halt or reverse the downward trend by providing support.

Interested in getting more crypto insights? Subscribe to Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Data from Glassnode shows that most Solana (SOL) holders initially bought their coins between $85.66 and $86.22, with a total of 13.73 million SOL purchased at that price point.

There’s a significant group of SOL holdings, totaling 8,804,899, clustered between $88.49 and $89.07. This concentration could act as a key support level, potentially preventing further price drops.

As an analyst, I’m watching a bearish pattern develop, but it needs to confirm with breaks in two key areas to really play out. While volume is decreasing and the pattern is losing some strength, there’s a significant group of investors currently holding profitable positions, and they’re acting as a buffer against a sharp decline. This makes a straightforward downward move less likely right now.

As a crypto investor, I’m watching to see if the price level where a lot of people bought in – what’s called the ‘cost basis’ – will act as a support. Recently, the activity on exchanges has become much more positive, which is a good sign that this support level might actually hold. Basically, more people are looking to buy than sell, and that’s encouraging.

Exchange Outflows Surge 356% as Buyers Defend the Setup

Since May 2nd, the amount of SOL moving onto Solana exchanges has decreased significantly. Throughout April, there was consistent growth in SOL deposits, but now we’re seeing a strong trend of people withdrawing their SOL from exchanges.

On May 2nd, the exchange saw a small net outflow of 501,807 SOL. However, by May 13th, this had increased significantly to 2,286,298 SOL – a 356% jump in outflows over just two weeks.

Large amounts of SOL are leaving exchanges, which usually means people are storing it securely themselves. This reduces the number of coins available for sale and can help prevent significant price drops. The timing of these outflows, happening right before the price rose towards $98, suggests buyers were actively supporting the price and preventing it from falling, even as a potential negative pattern was developing.

Recent trading activity is creating a challenging situation for the market. A potential downward trend is forming, but there’s conflicting data – while the chart suggests a decline, buying pressure is holding strong. Ultimately, the price movement itself will determine which force wins out.

Solana Price Levels Show Where the Decision Lands

Solana is currently trading at $91.22. The price is holding above key support levels, specifically the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages, which are at $89.54 and $88.13 respectively. These averages, along with a previous buying range between $88.49 and $89.07, are acting as a strong base for the price.

If the price falls below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, it could drop to a support level around $84.96, which is a key Fibonacci retracement level. This area also coincides with a large number of existing buyers, between $85.66 and $86.22. This combination of technical and on-chain support makes it a strong area where the price might stabilize before potentially falling further.

If the price falls below the current cluster, it could drop to $81.31, and then potentially to $76.66. A break below $76.66 could lead to further declines, initially targeting $63.25, with a possibility of reaching $60.23.

For Solana (SOL) to show signs of recovery and challenge the current negative outlook, it needs to rise above $93.25. A stronger signal that the negative trend is over would come with a daily closing price above $98.37, which would negate the recent high point.

The $88.13 EMA level is a key point: if the price falls below it, we can expect a continued decline towards $76.66. However, if the price rises above it and reaches $93.25, that would suggest the previous downward trend might be reversing.

Read More

2026-05-14 15:00